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Wednesday, 22 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The unfolding last week of a trilateral defence pact between the United States, Australia, the United Kingdom (AUKUS) envisages a wide range of collaboration, but at its core is an agreement to start consultations to help Australia acquire a fleet of nuclear-propelled submarines. Believe AUKUS is an interesting development in the context of the already intensified geopolitical tensions between Australia and China, which have already led to a shift in trading patterns, particularly as far as dry bulk trade is concerned.
In particular, China’s ban on Australian coal since Q42020 has triggered inefficiencies in coal trading, with wide price arbitrages developing between China and the rest of the world for both metallurgical coal used by the steel industry and thermal coal used in power generation. The supply tightness has been more severe on metallurgical coal, the price of which has surged to record high levels, with China scrambling for supplies simulateneously with the rest of the world, steel production of which continues to grow. Australia is the world’s largest met coal exporter (approx. 59.0% of global seaborne met coal exports) and 2nd thermal coal exporter (approx. 22.0% of global seaborne thermal coal exports). China’s coking coal imports from Australia have come down to zero YTD 2021 vs a more than 50% share in imports during the previous two years. Imports from Mongolia so far have failed to meet increased demand amid COVID related supply disruptions and China had to increase its met coal imports share from Russia and the West (particularly the US and Canada), the last traditionally being primariy origins of imports for Europe. On the other hand, Australia coking coal is absorbed by steel mills outside China, as global steel production excl. the latter is up 16.0+% y-o-y (YTD Jan-Jul) and Australia coking coal has turned out cheaper than US coking coal despite the overall price surge. This trade shift has increased ton-miles and dry bulk fleet inefficiencies supporting Atlantic freight rates higher for longer.
In the meantime, China’s policy pledge for emissions cuts seems to be further supporting ton-miles for dry bulk, despite the country’s crude steel production declining y-o-y over the past two months and iron ore price collapsing below $100/ton recently from $230/ton in mid-July. We believe that in the short term, the severe coking coal and coke shortage in China as a result of the above policies is forcing crude steel production to adjust downwards earlier, but is incentivizing purchases of cheaper iron ore particularly from the Atlantic.
Till recently, demand for cargoes of crucial raw materials like iron ore and coal have overall jumped this year, outpacing active fleet growth, particularly if congestion is factored in, as economies recover from the pandemic. As new market dynamics develop and shape a new post pandemic landscape, we want to believe that these will become new fundamentals that can continue to propel ultimately demand for seaborne transportation of dry bulk commodities in the long run.
By Christopher Whitty,
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 14 August 20
EIA: COAL PLANTS UNECONOMICAL IN MOST REGIONS - IEEFA
U.S. coal power generation plunged by 30 percent in the first half of 2020 off an already-depressed base, shoved out by natural gas and renewables ...
Thursday, 13 August 20
INDIA SHOULD RECORD A SLIGHT DECREASE IN THERMAL COAL IMPORTS, REACHING A VOLUME OF 167 MILLION TONS BY THE END OF 2020 - ASSOCARBONI
Regarding 2020 thermal coal imports forecasts, Vietnam’s coal imports showed a very strong growth in the first half of 2020 and it is believe ...
Thursday, 13 August 20
INDONESIA REMAINS THE LARGEST EXPORTER OF COAL IN THE WORLD - ASSOCARBONI
According to the last Assocarboni data for 2019, Indonesia remains the largest exporter in the world. Thermal coal exports have in fact reached 456 ...
Wednesday, 12 August 20
VIETNAM WAS THE PROTAGONIST OF A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN COAL IMPORTS IN 2019 - ASSOCARBONI
The latest Assocarboni data for 2019 also provide a detailed picture on the trend of the global coal import.
According to Assocarbon ...
Wednesday, 12 August 20
THE COAL MARKET IN ITALY - ASSOCARBONI
Italy, which in 2019 reported a decrease in thermal coal imports, with a volume of 7,5 million tons (-32% compared to 11 million tons in 2018), whi ...
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- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Australian Coal Association
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Minerals Council of Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
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