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Wednesday, 22 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The unfolding last week of a trilateral defence pact between the United States, Australia, the United Kingdom (AUKUS) envisages a wide range of collaboration, but at its core is an agreement to start consultations to help Australia acquire a fleet of nuclear-propelled submarines. Believe AUKUS is an interesting development in the context of the already intensified geopolitical tensions between Australia and China, which have already led to a shift in trading patterns, particularly as far as dry bulk trade is concerned.
In particular, China’s ban on Australian coal since Q42020 has triggered inefficiencies in coal trading, with wide price arbitrages developing between China and the rest of the world for both metallurgical coal used by the steel industry and thermal coal used in power generation. The supply tightness has been more severe on metallurgical coal, the price of which has surged to record high levels, with China scrambling for supplies simulateneously with the rest of the world, steel production of which continues to grow. Australia is the world’s largest met coal exporter (approx. 59.0% of global seaborne met coal exports) and 2nd thermal coal exporter (approx. 22.0% of global seaborne thermal coal exports). China’s coking coal imports from Australia have come down to zero YTD 2021 vs a more than 50% share in imports during the previous two years. Imports from Mongolia so far have failed to meet increased demand amid COVID related supply disruptions and China had to increase its met coal imports share from Russia and the West (particularly the US and Canada), the last traditionally being primariy origins of imports for Europe. On the other hand, Australia coking coal is absorbed by steel mills outside China, as global steel production excl. the latter is up 16.0+% y-o-y (YTD Jan-Jul) and Australia coking coal has turned out cheaper than US coking coal despite the overall price surge. This trade shift has increased ton-miles and dry bulk fleet inefficiencies supporting Atlantic freight rates higher for longer.
In the meantime, China’s policy pledge for emissions cuts seems to be further supporting ton-miles for dry bulk, despite the country’s crude steel production declining y-o-y over the past two months and iron ore price collapsing below $100/ton recently from $230/ton in mid-July. We believe that in the short term, the severe coking coal and coke shortage in China as a result of the above policies is forcing crude steel production to adjust downwards earlier, but is incentivizing purchases of cheaper iron ore particularly from the Atlantic.
Till recently, demand for cargoes of crucial raw materials like iron ore and coal have overall jumped this year, outpacing active fleet growth, particularly if congestion is factored in, as economies recover from the pandemic. As new market dynamics develop and shape a new post pandemic landscape, we want to believe that these will become new fundamentals that can continue to propel ultimately demand for seaborne transportation of dry bulk commodities in the long run.
By Christopher Whitty,
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 19 August 20
MISC MARKS ITS MAIDEN FORAY INTO MAJOR DEEP-WATER PROJECT IN LATIN AMERICA WITH MERO 3 FPSO
MISC Berhad (MISC) is pleased to announce its acceptance of Letter of Intent (LOI) from Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. (Petrobras) for the provisi ...
Wednesday, 19 August 20
MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE LAIOS | INTERMODAL
Since the Covid-19 outbreak, governments and central banks around the globe have been using their ammunition and stimulus packages to keep their ec ...
Wednesday, 19 August 20
INDIA SAW A SHARP DECLINE IN ENERGY COAL IMPORTS IN JANUARY - JUNE 2020; –27 PER CENT YOY - BHP
Energy coal prices were weak in the second half of financial year 2020, BHP says in its Economic and Commodity Outlook FY20.
Accordi ...
Wednesday, 19 August 20
COAL PRICES TO REMAIN SUBDUED THIS FISCAL AMID WEAK DEMAND, HIGH INVENTORY - THE HINDU BUSINESS LINE
Coal offtake is improving gradually as lockdown eases
Coal prices are expected to remain subdued to weak demand and high inventory l ...
Tuesday, 18 August 20
BLACKBALLED: WILL COAL BOUNCE BACK FROM SLUMP OR IS IT TERMINAL? - SYDNEY MORNING HERALD
Even by the standards of this miserable year, 2020 has been a shocker for the global coal industry.
As the lockdown kicked in demand ...
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- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- The University of Queensland
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
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