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Wednesday, 22 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The unfolding last week of a trilateral defence pact between the United States, Australia, the United Kingdom (AUKUS) envisages a wide range of collaboration, but at its core is an agreement to start consultations to help Australia acquire a fleet of nuclear-propelled submarines. Believe AUKUS is an interesting development in the context of the already intensified geopolitical tensions between Australia and China, which have already led to a shift in trading patterns, particularly as far as dry bulk trade is concerned.
In particular, China’s ban on Australian coal since Q42020 has triggered inefficiencies in coal trading, with wide price arbitrages developing between China and the rest of the world for both metallurgical coal used by the steel industry and thermal coal used in power generation. The supply tightness has been more severe on metallurgical coal, the price of which has surged to record high levels, with China scrambling for supplies simulateneously with the rest of the world, steel production of which continues to grow. Australia is the world’s largest met coal exporter (approx. 59.0% of global seaborne met coal exports) and 2nd thermal coal exporter (approx. 22.0% of global seaborne thermal coal exports). China’s coking coal imports from Australia have come down to zero YTD 2021 vs a more than 50% share in imports during the previous two years. Imports from Mongolia so far have failed to meet increased demand amid COVID related supply disruptions and China had to increase its met coal imports share from Russia and the West (particularly the US and Canada), the last traditionally being primariy origins of imports for Europe. On the other hand, Australia coking coal is absorbed by steel mills outside China, as global steel production excl. the latter is up 16.0+% y-o-y (YTD Jan-Jul) and Australia coking coal has turned out cheaper than US coking coal despite the overall price surge. This trade shift has increased ton-miles and dry bulk fleet inefficiencies supporting Atlantic freight rates higher for longer.
In the meantime, China’s policy pledge for emissions cuts seems to be further supporting ton-miles for dry bulk, despite the country’s crude steel production declining y-o-y over the past two months and iron ore price collapsing below $100/ton recently from $230/ton in mid-July. We believe that in the short term, the severe coking coal and coke shortage in China as a result of the above policies is forcing crude steel production to adjust downwards earlier, but is incentivizing purchases of cheaper iron ore particularly from the Atlantic.
Till recently, demand for cargoes of crucial raw materials like iron ore and coal have overall jumped this year, outpacing active fleet growth, particularly if congestion is factored in, as economies recover from the pandemic. As new market dynamics develop and shape a new post pandemic landscape, we want to believe that these will become new fundamentals that can continue to propel ultimately demand for seaborne transportation of dry bulk commodities in the long run.
By Christopher Whitty,
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 12 August 20
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION IN 2020 WILL DECREASE BY 29% FROM 2019 LEVELS TO 502 MMST - EIA
U.S. coal consumption, which dropped to its lowest point since April, totaled 95 MMst in the second quarter of 2020.
EIA expec ...
Tuesday, 11 August 20
BHP COAL ASSETS WORTH A BILLION LESS THAN JUST TWO YEARS AGO - IEEFA
Another global investor, the UK’s biggest public pension fund NEST, has withdrawn funds from BHP this week because the company is profiting & ...
Monday, 10 August 20
COAL IMPORT DROPS 43% IN JULY OWING TO HIGH STOCKPILE AT PITHEADS, PLANTS - PTI
“The market participants seem to have adopted a wait and watch approach and are currently looking for a direction. We do not expect to see an ...
Saturday, 08 August 20
GLOBAL COAL POWER PUZZLE - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Global Energy Monitor’s latest Global Coal Plant Tracker has put another nail in the coffin for the coal-carrying fleet with its finding that ...
Friday, 07 August 20
PEABODY'S $1.42 BILLION WRITE-DOWN CONCEDES COAL MINES HAVE LITTLE VALUE AND DIM FUTURE - IEEFA
Trouble at biggest mine in Powder River Basin speaks volumes about state of industry
Peabody Energy, the world’s largest priva ...
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- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- The University of Queensland
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- White Energy Company Limited
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
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