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Wednesday, 22 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The unfolding last week of a trilateral defence pact between the United States, Australia, the United Kingdom (AUKUS) envisages a wide range of collaboration, but at its core is an agreement to start consultations to help Australia acquire a fleet of nuclear-propelled submarines. Believe AUKUS is an interesting development in the context of the already intensified geopolitical tensions between Australia and China, which have already led to a shift in trading patterns, particularly as far as dry bulk trade is concerned.
In particular, China’s ban on Australian coal since Q42020 has triggered inefficiencies in coal trading, with wide price arbitrages developing between China and the rest of the world for both metallurgical coal used by the steel industry and thermal coal used in power generation. The supply tightness has been more severe on metallurgical coal, the price of which has surged to record high levels, with China scrambling for supplies simulateneously with the rest of the world, steel production of which continues to grow. Australia is the world’s largest met coal exporter (approx. 59.0% of global seaborne met coal exports) and 2nd thermal coal exporter (approx. 22.0% of global seaborne thermal coal exports). China’s coking coal imports from Australia have come down to zero YTD 2021 vs a more than 50% share in imports during the previous two years. Imports from Mongolia so far have failed to meet increased demand amid COVID related supply disruptions and China had to increase its met coal imports share from Russia and the West (particularly the US and Canada), the last traditionally being primariy origins of imports for Europe. On the other hand, Australia coking coal is absorbed by steel mills outside China, as global steel production excl. the latter is up 16.0+% y-o-y (YTD Jan-Jul) and Australia coking coal has turned out cheaper than US coking coal despite the overall price surge. This trade shift has increased ton-miles and dry bulk fleet inefficiencies supporting Atlantic freight rates higher for longer.
In the meantime, China’s policy pledge for emissions cuts seems to be further supporting ton-miles for dry bulk, despite the country’s crude steel production declining y-o-y over the past two months and iron ore price collapsing below $100/ton recently from $230/ton in mid-July. We believe that in the short term, the severe coking coal and coke shortage in China as a result of the above policies is forcing crude steel production to adjust downwards earlier, but is incentivizing purchases of cheaper iron ore particularly from the Atlantic.
Till recently, demand for cargoes of crucial raw materials like iron ore and coal have overall jumped this year, outpacing active fleet growth, particularly if congestion is factored in, as economies recover from the pandemic. As new market dynamics develop and shape a new post pandemic landscape, we want to believe that these will become new fundamentals that can continue to propel ultimately demand for seaborne transportation of dry bulk commodities in the long run.
By Christopher Whitty,
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 04 August 20
KOEN INVITED BIDS FOR TOTAL 900K MT OF MIN 5600 NCV COAL FOR 3 YEARS
COALspot.com: South Korea’s KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER CO., LTD. (KOEN) has issued an international tender for 260,000 to 300,000 Tons (MT) min. ...
Tuesday, 04 August 20
THE WORLD’S FLEET OF COAL-FIRED POWER STATIONS HAS GOT SMALLER FOR THE FIRST TIME ON RECORD, WITH MORE CAPACITY RETIRED IN THE FIRST HALF OF 2020 THAN THE AMOUNT OPENED - IEA
This is according to the latest Global Coal Plant Tracker (GCPT) results by Global Energy Monitor (GEM), which we completed last month and report f ...
Monday, 03 August 20
U.S. COAL CONSUMPTION, WHICH HAS DECLINED SINCE ITS 2007 PEAK, FELL TO ITS LOWEST POINT IN APRIL 2020 - EIA
According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) most recent Monthly Energy Review, the United States consumed 6.5 quadrillion ...
Monday, 03 August 20
LOW OIL PRICE AND CORONA VIRUS HIT SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA OIL PRODUCERS - FITCH RATINGS
The collapse in oil prices and the coronavirus shock is worsening the fiscal and external balances of sub-Saharan African oil producers, Fitch Rati ...
Saturday, 01 August 20
SHIP SHAPE - OUCH: FIS
Thursday afternoon saw a report that US GDP in Q2 shrank by 32.9%. Now this may have beaten expectations, but it’s a bit like saying that you ...
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- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Planning Commission, India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Australian Coal Association
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
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