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Wednesday, 22 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The unfolding last week of a trilateral defence pact between the United States, Australia, the United Kingdom (AUKUS) envisages a wide range of collaboration, but at its core is an agreement to start consultations to help Australia acquire a fleet of nuclear-propelled submarines. Believe AUKUS is an interesting development in the context of the already intensified geopolitical tensions between Australia and China, which have already led to a shift in trading patterns, particularly as far as dry bulk trade is concerned.
In particular, China’s ban on Australian coal since Q42020 has triggered inefficiencies in coal trading, with wide price arbitrages developing between China and the rest of the world for both metallurgical coal used by the steel industry and thermal coal used in power generation. The supply tightness has been more severe on metallurgical coal, the price of which has surged to record high levels, with China scrambling for supplies simulateneously with the rest of the world, steel production of which continues to grow. Australia is the world’s largest met coal exporter (approx. 59.0% of global seaborne met coal exports) and 2nd thermal coal exporter (approx. 22.0% of global seaborne thermal coal exports). China’s coking coal imports from Australia have come down to zero YTD 2021 vs a more than 50% share in imports during the previous two years. Imports from Mongolia so far have failed to meet increased demand amid COVID related supply disruptions and China had to increase its met coal imports share from Russia and the West (particularly the US and Canada), the last traditionally being primariy origins of imports for Europe. On the other hand, Australia coking coal is absorbed by steel mills outside China, as global steel production excl. the latter is up 16.0+% y-o-y (YTD Jan-Jul) and Australia coking coal has turned out cheaper than US coking coal despite the overall price surge. This trade shift has increased ton-miles and dry bulk fleet inefficiencies supporting Atlantic freight rates higher for longer.
In the meantime, China’s policy pledge for emissions cuts seems to be further supporting ton-miles for dry bulk, despite the country’s crude steel production declining y-o-y over the past two months and iron ore price collapsing below $100/ton recently from $230/ton in mid-July. We believe that in the short term, the severe coking coal and coke shortage in China as a result of the above policies is forcing crude steel production to adjust downwards earlier, but is incentivizing purchases of cheaper iron ore particularly from the Atlantic.
Till recently, demand for cargoes of crucial raw materials like iron ore and coal have overall jumped this year, outpacing active fleet growth, particularly if congestion is factored in, as economies recover from the pandemic. As new market dynamics develop and shape a new post pandemic landscape, we want to believe that these will become new fundamentals that can continue to propel ultimately demand for seaborne transportation of dry bulk commodities in the long run.
By Christopher Whitty,
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Saturday, 01 August 20
ASIA HOPE FOR LONG-TERM OIL DEMAND - BALTIC BRIEFING
Oil demand in Asia Pacific might be expected to plunge 1.8m barrels per day (bpd) this year, but there are still strong prospects for growth over t ...
Friday, 31 July 20
SHORT-TERM IMPACT ON THE CHEMICAL SHIPPING MARKET IF THE INDIA-CHINA DISPUTE ESCALATES - DREWRY
Due to the India-China dispute, the threat of deteriorating trade relations between the two countries has become real. Meanwhile, we expect freight ...
Friday, 31 July 20
PANAMAX: THE PERIOD MARKET REMAINS QUIET WITH FEW FIXTURES REPORTED - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
After weeks of dropping rates, there are finally some resistance for the Capes. Pacific rounds improving to upper15,000s by the middle ...
Friday, 31 July 20
PANDEMIC SENDING SOUTH AFRICAN COAL INDUSTRY TO EARLIER GRAVE - IEEFA
Could South Africa’s coal export industry, one of the largest in the world, be about to take a severe hit from the coronavirus?
...
Friday, 31 July 20
BOTSWANA PLANS MORE COAL-FIRED POWER AS AFRICAN SOLAR ACCELERATES - IEEFA
An African economic leader like Botswana should embrace solar to reduce subsidies and tariff hikes
As Sub-Saharan solar ambition has ...
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- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Planning Commission, India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Australian Coal Association
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
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