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Wednesday, 22 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The unfolding last week of a trilateral defence pact between the United States, Australia, the United Kingdom (AUKUS) envisages a wide range of collaboration, but at its core is an agreement to start consultations to help Australia acquire a fleet of nuclear-propelled submarines. Believe AUKUS is an interesting development in the context of the already intensified geopolitical tensions between Australia and China, which have already led to a shift in trading patterns, particularly as far as dry bulk trade is concerned.
In particular, China’s ban on Australian coal since Q42020 has triggered inefficiencies in coal trading, with wide price arbitrages developing between China and the rest of the world for both metallurgical coal used by the steel industry and thermal coal used in power generation. The supply tightness has been more severe on metallurgical coal, the price of which has surged to record high levels, with China scrambling for supplies simulateneously with the rest of the world, steel production of which continues to grow. Australia is the world’s largest met coal exporter (approx. 59.0% of global seaborne met coal exports) and 2nd thermal coal exporter (approx. 22.0% of global seaborne thermal coal exports). China’s coking coal imports from Australia have come down to zero YTD 2021 vs a more than 50% share in imports during the previous two years. Imports from Mongolia so far have failed to meet increased demand amid COVID related supply disruptions and China had to increase its met coal imports share from Russia and the West (particularly the US and Canada), the last traditionally being primariy origins of imports for Europe. On the other hand, Australia coking coal is absorbed by steel mills outside China, as global steel production excl. the latter is up 16.0+% y-o-y (YTD Jan-Jul) and Australia coking coal has turned out cheaper than US coking coal despite the overall price surge. This trade shift has increased ton-miles and dry bulk fleet inefficiencies supporting Atlantic freight rates higher for longer.
In the meantime, China’s policy pledge for emissions cuts seems to be further supporting ton-miles for dry bulk, despite the country’s crude steel production declining y-o-y over the past two months and iron ore price collapsing below $100/ton recently from $230/ton in mid-July. We believe that in the short term, the severe coking coal and coke shortage in China as a result of the above policies is forcing crude steel production to adjust downwards earlier, but is incentivizing purchases of cheaper iron ore particularly from the Atlantic.
Till recently, demand for cargoes of crucial raw materials like iron ore and coal have overall jumped this year, outpacing active fleet growth, particularly if congestion is factored in, as economies recover from the pandemic. As new market dynamics develop and shape a new post pandemic landscape, we want to believe that these will become new fundamentals that can continue to propel ultimately demand for seaborne transportation of dry bulk commodities in the long run.
By Christopher Whitty,
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 23 July 20
KOREAN GENCOS INVITED BIDS FOR TOTAL 1.36 MILLION TONS OF BITUMINOUS COAL FOR OCTOBER 2020 LOADING
COALspot.com: Korea Midland Power Co., Ltd (KOMIPO) on behalf of EWP, KOSPO, KOSEP and KOWEPO has issued an international tender for total 1,360,00 ...
Wednesday, 22 July 20
CIL'S COAL SUPPLY TO POWER SECTOR DROPS OVER 21% TO 93.5 MT IN APR-JUN QUARTER - PTI
The supply of coal by state-owned Coal India Ltd to the power sector fell 21.7 percent to 93.5 million tonnes (MT) in the first quarter of the ongo ...
Monday, 20 July 20
KOREA MIDLAND POWER INVITED BIDS FOR TOTAL 2.520 MILLION MT OF BITUMINOUS COAL FOR THREE YEARS
COALspot.com: Korea Midland Power Co., Ltd (KOMIPO), has issued an international tender for total 840,000 of Bituminous Coal to be used at Bo ...
Monday, 20 July 20
CHINA'S JUNE COAL OUTPUT FALLS 1.2% YEAR-ON-YEAR OVER ILLEGAL MINING CHECKS - REUTERS
China’s coal output dropped 1.2% in June on the year to 330 million tonnes, official data showed, as major coal mining areas cracked down on ...
Monday, 20 July 20
COAL INDIA LAUNCHES SPECIAL CATEGORY OF E-AUCTION FOR COAL IMPORTERS - BUSINESS STANDARD
Coal India (CIL) on Friday launched a special category of e-auction for importers of coal. This is in line with the government’s declaration ...
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- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- The University of Queensland
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
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