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Wednesday, 22 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The unfolding last week of a trilateral defence pact between the United States, Australia, the United Kingdom (AUKUS) envisages a wide range of collaboration, but at its core is an agreement to start consultations to help Australia acquire a fleet of nuclear-propelled submarines. Believe AUKUS is an interesting development in the context of the already intensified geopolitical tensions between Australia and China, which have already led to a shift in trading patterns, particularly as far as dry bulk trade is concerned.
In particular, China’s ban on Australian coal since Q42020 has triggered inefficiencies in coal trading, with wide price arbitrages developing between China and the rest of the world for both metallurgical coal used by the steel industry and thermal coal used in power generation. The supply tightness has been more severe on metallurgical coal, the price of which has surged to record high levels, with China scrambling for supplies simulateneously with the rest of the world, steel production of which continues to grow. Australia is the world’s largest met coal exporter (approx. 59.0% of global seaborne met coal exports) and 2nd thermal coal exporter (approx. 22.0% of global seaborne thermal coal exports). China’s coking coal imports from Australia have come down to zero YTD 2021 vs a more than 50% share in imports during the previous two years. Imports from Mongolia so far have failed to meet increased demand amid COVID related supply disruptions and China had to increase its met coal imports share from Russia and the West (particularly the US and Canada), the last traditionally being primariy origins of imports for Europe. On the other hand, Australia coking coal is absorbed by steel mills outside China, as global steel production excl. the latter is up 16.0+% y-o-y (YTD Jan-Jul) and Australia coking coal has turned out cheaper than US coking coal despite the overall price surge. This trade shift has increased ton-miles and dry bulk fleet inefficiencies supporting Atlantic freight rates higher for longer.
In the meantime, China’s policy pledge for emissions cuts seems to be further supporting ton-miles for dry bulk, despite the country’s crude steel production declining y-o-y over the past two months and iron ore price collapsing below $100/ton recently from $230/ton in mid-July. We believe that in the short term, the severe coking coal and coke shortage in China as a result of the above policies is forcing crude steel production to adjust downwards earlier, but is incentivizing purchases of cheaper iron ore particularly from the Atlantic.
Till recently, demand for cargoes of crucial raw materials like iron ore and coal have overall jumped this year, outpacing active fleet growth, particularly if congestion is factored in, as economies recover from the pandemic. As new market dynamics develop and shape a new post pandemic landscape, we want to believe that these will become new fundamentals that can continue to propel ultimately demand for seaborne transportation of dry bulk commodities in the long run.
By Christopher Whitty,
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 20 July 20
OIL PRICE OF $40-43 PER BARREL MORE OR LESS BALANCED - NOVAK | TASS
The Russian Ministry of Energy considers the current oil price of $40-43 per barrel more or less balanced and does not expect price changes after t ...
Monday, 20 July 20
SUPRAMAX: A 63,000 OPEN NORTH CHINA FIXING AN AUSTRALIAN ROUND IN THE LOW $10,000S - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The capesize market showed some resistance this week to recent losses as all routes saw a small uptick in value to end the week. With ...
Friday, 17 July 20
MISC MALAYSIA ENTERS INTO PURCHASE AGREEMENTS AND TIME CHARTER PARTIES FOR SIX VLECS
MISC Berhad (MISC) has entered into Memorandum of Agreements (MOAs) with six indirect wholly-owned subsidiaries of Zhejiang Satellite Petrochem ...
Wednesday, 15 July 20
HOW MEANINGFUL ARE SOME ESTIMATES FOR INDIA’S COAL CONSUMPTION DATA? - IEEFA
In recent years, BP's estimates for India have contained what appears to be a record of over-optimistic projections
BP’s a ...
Wednesday, 15 July 20
CHINA'S JUNE COAL IMPORTS FALL 6.7% Y/Y ON PORT CURBS - REUTERS
China’s coal imports dropped 6.7% in June from the same period last year, as stringent import restrictions at ports impeded purchases by trad ...
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- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Planning Commission, India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
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