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Wednesday, 22 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The unfolding last week of a trilateral defence pact between the United States, Australia, the United Kingdom (AUKUS) envisages a wide range of collaboration, but at its core is an agreement to start consultations to help Australia acquire a fleet of nuclear-propelled submarines. Believe AUKUS is an interesting development in the context of the already intensified geopolitical tensions between Australia and China, which have already led to a shift in trading patterns, particularly as far as dry bulk trade is concerned.
In particular, China’s ban on Australian coal since Q42020 has triggered inefficiencies in coal trading, with wide price arbitrages developing between China and the rest of the world for both metallurgical coal used by the steel industry and thermal coal used in power generation. The supply tightness has been more severe on metallurgical coal, the price of which has surged to record high levels, with China scrambling for supplies simulateneously with the rest of the world, steel production of which continues to grow. Australia is the world’s largest met coal exporter (approx. 59.0% of global seaborne met coal exports) and 2nd thermal coal exporter (approx. 22.0% of global seaborne thermal coal exports). China’s coking coal imports from Australia have come down to zero YTD 2021 vs a more than 50% share in imports during the previous two years. Imports from Mongolia so far have failed to meet increased demand amid COVID related supply disruptions and China had to increase its met coal imports share from Russia and the West (particularly the US and Canada), the last traditionally being primariy origins of imports for Europe. On the other hand, Australia coking coal is absorbed by steel mills outside China, as global steel production excl. the latter is up 16.0+% y-o-y (YTD Jan-Jul) and Australia coking coal has turned out cheaper than US coking coal despite the overall price surge. This trade shift has increased ton-miles and dry bulk fleet inefficiencies supporting Atlantic freight rates higher for longer.
In the meantime, China’s policy pledge for emissions cuts seems to be further supporting ton-miles for dry bulk, despite the country’s crude steel production declining y-o-y over the past two months and iron ore price collapsing below $100/ton recently from $230/ton in mid-July. We believe that in the short term, the severe coking coal and coke shortage in China as a result of the above policies is forcing crude steel production to adjust downwards earlier, but is incentivizing purchases of cheaper iron ore particularly from the Atlantic.
Till recently, demand for cargoes of crucial raw materials like iron ore and coal have overall jumped this year, outpacing active fleet growth, particularly if congestion is factored in, as economies recover from the pandemic. As new market dynamics develop and shape a new post pandemic landscape, we want to believe that these will become new fundamentals that can continue to propel ultimately demand for seaborne transportation of dry bulk commodities in the long run.
By Christopher Whitty,
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 10 July 20
GLOBAL SHIPPING EARNINGS FORECAST CUT AS SUPPLY SET TO OUTSTRIP DEMAND - MOODY'S
EBITDA forecast worsens, keeping outlook negative. We now expect the aggregate EBITDA of rated shipping companies to fall by around 16%-18% in 2020 ...
Friday, 10 July 20
SLOW RECOVERY IN TANKER RATES TO WEIGH ON BUANA LINTAS LAUTAN - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings believes that international tanker rates are likely improve after their sharp fall since May 2020, albeit at a slow pace. The weaknes ...
Wednesday, 08 July 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
During the previous month, the dry bulk market witnessed an impressive increase in the BDI index that has reached 1800 points from 500 with a clear ...
Tuesday, 07 July 20
COAL INDIA WORKERS STRIKE CUTS OUTPUT BY 56%: OFFICIAL - REUTERS
A strike at Coal India Ltd cut production by 56% in the three days ending July 4 as workers oppose opening up coal mining to the private sector, a ...
Tuesday, 07 July 20
WHAT DOES THE PATHWAY TO A NET-ZERO ECONOMY LOOK LIKE FOR MINERS? - WOOD MACKENZIE
Wind, solar, electric vehicles, stationary storage and transmission are all central to achieving the Paris Agreement decarbonisation goals.
&nb ...
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- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- The University of Queensland
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
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