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Wednesday, 22 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The unfolding last week of a trilateral defence pact between the United States, Australia, the United Kingdom (AUKUS) envisages a wide range of collaboration, but at its core is an agreement to start consultations to help Australia acquire a fleet of nuclear-propelled submarines. Believe AUKUS is an interesting development in the context of the already intensified geopolitical tensions between Australia and China, which have already led to a shift in trading patterns, particularly as far as dry bulk trade is concerned.
In particular, China’s ban on Australian coal since Q42020 has triggered inefficiencies in coal trading, with wide price arbitrages developing between China and the rest of the world for both metallurgical coal used by the steel industry and thermal coal used in power generation. The supply tightness has been more severe on metallurgical coal, the price of which has surged to record high levels, with China scrambling for supplies simulateneously with the rest of the world, steel production of which continues to grow. Australia is the world’s largest met coal exporter (approx. 59.0% of global seaborne met coal exports) and 2nd thermal coal exporter (approx. 22.0% of global seaborne thermal coal exports). China’s coking coal imports from Australia have come down to zero YTD 2021 vs a more than 50% share in imports during the previous two years. Imports from Mongolia so far have failed to meet increased demand amid COVID related supply disruptions and China had to increase its met coal imports share from Russia and the West (particularly the US and Canada), the last traditionally being primariy origins of imports for Europe. On the other hand, Australia coking coal is absorbed by steel mills outside China, as global steel production excl. the latter is up 16.0+% y-o-y (YTD Jan-Jul) and Australia coking coal has turned out cheaper than US coking coal despite the overall price surge. This trade shift has increased ton-miles and dry bulk fleet inefficiencies supporting Atlantic freight rates higher for longer.
In the meantime, China’s policy pledge for emissions cuts seems to be further supporting ton-miles for dry bulk, despite the country’s crude steel production declining y-o-y over the past two months and iron ore price collapsing below $100/ton recently from $230/ton in mid-July. We believe that in the short term, the severe coking coal and coke shortage in China as a result of the above policies is forcing crude steel production to adjust downwards earlier, but is incentivizing purchases of cheaper iron ore particularly from the Atlantic.
Till recently, demand for cargoes of crucial raw materials like iron ore and coal have overall jumped this year, outpacing active fleet growth, particularly if congestion is factored in, as economies recover from the pandemic. As new market dynamics develop and shape a new post pandemic landscape, we want to believe that these will become new fundamentals that can continue to propel ultimately demand for seaborne transportation of dry bulk commodities in the long run.
By Christopher Whitty,
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 06 July 20
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE IN FREE FALL
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down again the benchmark price of Indonesian th ...
Monday, 06 July 20
SUPRAMAX: A 58,000-DWT FIXING DELIVERY VIETNAM TRIP VIA INDONESIA RE-DELIVERY WEST INDIA IN THE LOW $4,000S
Capesize
The Capesize market continues to go from strength to strength, as rates reach highs not seen since September last year. The rally is p ...
Thursday, 02 July 20
PRIVATE COAL MINING MAY SEE WEAK INVESTOR SENTIMENT: ICRA - LIVEMINT
The prospects of commercial coal mining in India may be dimmer than initially expected because of the expected shift in India’s energy mix fr ...
Wednesday, 01 July 20
THERMAL COAL OPTIONS TRADING LAUNCHED IN CHINA'S ZHENGZHOU - XINHUA
Thermal coal options started trading on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange (ZCE) in central China’s Henan Province Tuesday.
It i ...
Wednesday, 01 July 20
COLOMBIA'S COAL EXPORT VOLUMES HAVE STEADILY DECLINED IN RECENT YEARS - BANCHERO COSTA
Colombia is the world’s fifth largest seaborne exporter of coal, coming after Australia, Indonesia, Russia and the USA.
Export ...
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- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- White Energy Company Limited
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Australian Coal Association
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Planning Commission, India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- PTC India Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
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