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Wednesday, 22 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The unfolding last week of a trilateral defence pact between the United States, Australia, the United Kingdom (AUKUS) envisages a wide range of collaboration, but at its core is an agreement to start consultations to help Australia acquire a fleet of nuclear-propelled submarines. Believe AUKUS is an interesting development in the context of the already intensified geopolitical tensions between Australia and China, which have already led to a shift in trading patterns, particularly as far as dry bulk trade is concerned.
In particular, China’s ban on Australian coal since Q42020 has triggered inefficiencies in coal trading, with wide price arbitrages developing between China and the rest of the world for both metallurgical coal used by the steel industry and thermal coal used in power generation. The supply tightness has been more severe on metallurgical coal, the price of which has surged to record high levels, with China scrambling for supplies simulateneously with the rest of the world, steel production of which continues to grow. Australia is the world’s largest met coal exporter (approx. 59.0% of global seaborne met coal exports) and 2nd thermal coal exporter (approx. 22.0% of global seaborne thermal coal exports). China’s coking coal imports from Australia have come down to zero YTD 2021 vs a more than 50% share in imports during the previous two years. Imports from Mongolia so far have failed to meet increased demand amid COVID related supply disruptions and China had to increase its met coal imports share from Russia and the West (particularly the US and Canada), the last traditionally being primariy origins of imports for Europe. On the other hand, Australia coking coal is absorbed by steel mills outside China, as global steel production excl. the latter is up 16.0+% y-o-y (YTD Jan-Jul) and Australia coking coal has turned out cheaper than US coking coal despite the overall price surge. This trade shift has increased ton-miles and dry bulk fleet inefficiencies supporting Atlantic freight rates higher for longer.
In the meantime, China’s policy pledge for emissions cuts seems to be further supporting ton-miles for dry bulk, despite the country’s crude steel production declining y-o-y over the past two months and iron ore price collapsing below $100/ton recently from $230/ton in mid-July. We believe that in the short term, the severe coking coal and coke shortage in China as a result of the above policies is forcing crude steel production to adjust downwards earlier, but is incentivizing purchases of cheaper iron ore particularly from the Atlantic.
Till recently, demand for cargoes of crucial raw materials like iron ore and coal have overall jumped this year, outpacing active fleet growth, particularly if congestion is factored in, as economies recover from the pandemic. As new market dynamics develop and shape a new post pandemic landscape, we want to believe that these will become new fundamentals that can continue to propel ultimately demand for seaborne transportation of dry bulk commodities in the long run.
By Christopher Whitty,
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 01 July 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
It was beginning of 2020 – close to 6 months from now – when we first experienced the huge impact of the COVID 19 outbreak on Ship Repa ...
Monday, 29 June 20
INDONESIAN COAL AT THE MERCY OF THE DRAGON AND TIGER - GHEE PEH | IEEFA
Coal sector analysts have been busy in recent months mapping the negative impact of low coal prices from the COVID-19 pandemic on Indonesian coal c ...
Monday, 29 June 20
FALLING DEMAND IN CHINA AND INDIA SIGNAL TOUGH TIMES AHEAD FOR INDONESIAN EXPORTS - GHEE PEH | EEFA
Assessing the Impact on Indonesian Coal Companies
The bad news for Indonesia’s coal companies is that they are likely to have ...
Monday, 29 June 20
INDIA COAL IMPORT OUTLOOK: WEAK DEMAND, IMPORT SUBSTITUTION, EXPECT 20% YOY DECLINE - GHEE PEH | IEEFA
For India, the coal demand indicators have clearly turned negative.
According to Argus Media, since the government declared a ...
Monday, 29 June 20
CHINA COAL IMPORT OUTLOOK: MANY MOVING PARTS, FORECAST TO FALL 10% YOY - GHEE PEH | IEEFA
China’s coal demand declined in the first quarter of 2020. According to the China National Coal Association, the country consumed 870mt in th ...
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- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Australian Coal Association
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- White Energy Company Limited
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
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