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Wednesday, 22 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The unfolding last week of a trilateral defence pact between the United States, Australia, the United Kingdom (AUKUS) envisages a wide range of collaboration, but at its core is an agreement to start consultations to help Australia acquire a fleet of nuclear-propelled submarines. Believe AUKUS is an interesting development in the context of the already intensified geopolitical tensions between Australia and China, which have already led to a shift in trading patterns, particularly as far as dry bulk trade is concerned.
In particular, China’s ban on Australian coal since Q42020 has triggered inefficiencies in coal trading, with wide price arbitrages developing between China and the rest of the world for both metallurgical coal used by the steel industry and thermal coal used in power generation. The supply tightness has been more severe on metallurgical coal, the price of which has surged to record high levels, with China scrambling for supplies simulateneously with the rest of the world, steel production of which continues to grow. Australia is the world’s largest met coal exporter (approx. 59.0% of global seaborne met coal exports) and 2nd thermal coal exporter (approx. 22.0% of global seaborne thermal coal exports). China’s coking coal imports from Australia have come down to zero YTD 2021 vs a more than 50% share in imports during the previous two years. Imports from Mongolia so far have failed to meet increased demand amid COVID related supply disruptions and China had to increase its met coal imports share from Russia and the West (particularly the US and Canada), the last traditionally being primariy origins of imports for Europe. On the other hand, Australia coking coal is absorbed by steel mills outside China, as global steel production excl. the latter is up 16.0+% y-o-y (YTD Jan-Jul) and Australia coking coal has turned out cheaper than US coking coal despite the overall price surge. This trade shift has increased ton-miles and dry bulk fleet inefficiencies supporting Atlantic freight rates higher for longer.
In the meantime, China’s policy pledge for emissions cuts seems to be further supporting ton-miles for dry bulk, despite the country’s crude steel production declining y-o-y over the past two months and iron ore price collapsing below $100/ton recently from $230/ton in mid-July. We believe that in the short term, the severe coking coal and coke shortage in China as a result of the above policies is forcing crude steel production to adjust downwards earlier, but is incentivizing purchases of cheaper iron ore particularly from the Atlantic.
Till recently, demand for cargoes of crucial raw materials like iron ore and coal have overall jumped this year, outpacing active fleet growth, particularly if congestion is factored in, as economies recover from the pandemic. As new market dynamics develop and shape a new post pandemic landscape, we want to believe that these will become new fundamentals that can continue to propel ultimately demand for seaborne transportation of dry bulk commodities in the long run.
By Christopher Whitty,
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 23 June 20
COVID-19 COULD CAUSE A BOOM IN COAL POWER - RYSTAD ENERGY | OILPRICE
COVID-19 has not only impacted the energy industry’s revenues but also its infrastructure development.
The delay of new natural gas ...
Tuesday, 23 June 20
CHINA'S COAL OUTPUT UP 0.9 PCT IN JANUARY-MAY: XINHUA
Output of raw coal in China rose 0.9 percent year on year to 1.47 billion tonnes in the first five months of this year, official data showed.
& ...
Monday, 22 June 20
KAMSARMAX TYPES REGULARLY HIT THE $9,000 PER DAY LEVEL FOR INDONESIAN COAL RUN TO CHINA, BALTIC BRIEFING SAYS
Capesize
The Capesize market trajectory this week has been one of the steepest rallies the sector has experienced. Opening at $12,410, the sect ...
Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals im ...
Saturday, 20 June 20
NO ESCAPING GLOBAL TRADE SLUMP - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Those hoping for a decent recovery in trade in the second half of the year should prepare for disappointment.
New data from the Unit ...
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- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- White Energy Company Limited
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Planning Commission, India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
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