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Wednesday, 22 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The unfolding last week of a trilateral defence pact between the United States, Australia, the United Kingdom (AUKUS) envisages a wide range of collaboration, but at its core is an agreement to start consultations to help Australia acquire a fleet of nuclear-propelled submarines. Believe AUKUS is an interesting development in the context of the already intensified geopolitical tensions between Australia and China, which have already led to a shift in trading patterns, particularly as far as dry bulk trade is concerned.
In particular, China’s ban on Australian coal since Q42020 has triggered inefficiencies in coal trading, with wide price arbitrages developing between China and the rest of the world for both metallurgical coal used by the steel industry and thermal coal used in power generation. The supply tightness has been more severe on metallurgical coal, the price of which has surged to record high levels, with China scrambling for supplies simulateneously with the rest of the world, steel production of which continues to grow. Australia is the world’s largest met coal exporter (approx. 59.0% of global seaborne met coal exports) and 2nd thermal coal exporter (approx. 22.0% of global seaborne thermal coal exports). China’s coking coal imports from Australia have come down to zero YTD 2021 vs a more than 50% share in imports during the previous two years. Imports from Mongolia so far have failed to meet increased demand amid COVID related supply disruptions and China had to increase its met coal imports share from Russia and the West (particularly the US and Canada), the last traditionally being primariy origins of imports for Europe. On the other hand, Australia coking coal is absorbed by steel mills outside China, as global steel production excl. the latter is up 16.0+% y-o-y (YTD Jan-Jul) and Australia coking coal has turned out cheaper than US coking coal despite the overall price surge. This trade shift has increased ton-miles and dry bulk fleet inefficiencies supporting Atlantic freight rates higher for longer.
In the meantime, China’s policy pledge for emissions cuts seems to be further supporting ton-miles for dry bulk, despite the country’s crude steel production declining y-o-y over the past two months and iron ore price collapsing below $100/ton recently from $230/ton in mid-July. We believe that in the short term, the severe coking coal and coke shortage in China as a result of the above policies is forcing crude steel production to adjust downwards earlier, but is incentivizing purchases of cheaper iron ore particularly from the Atlantic.
Till recently, demand for cargoes of crucial raw materials like iron ore and coal have overall jumped this year, outpacing active fleet growth, particularly if congestion is factored in, as economies recover from the pandemic. As new market dynamics develop and shape a new post pandemic landscape, we want to believe that these will become new fundamentals that can continue to propel ultimately demand for seaborne transportation of dry bulk commodities in the long run.
By Christopher Whitty,
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 17 June 20
KOREA SOUTHERN POWER CO INVITED 80000 MT OF LOW CALORIFIC VALUE COAL FOR AUGUST 1H, 2020 LOADING
COALspot.com: Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO) has issued an International tender for 80,000 Metric Tons (MT) Min 4,200 kcal/kg - Max. ...
Tuesday, 16 June 20
A GLOBAL ECONOMIC SLUMP: WHAT WILL IT MEAN FOR METALS AND MINING? - WOOD MACKENZIE
Back before coronavirus knocked “normal” out cold, the key issues for miners were sub-investment prices, rising requirements for ESG an ...
Tuesday, 16 June 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX UP 0.58 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 124.43 points Monday, up 0.58 percent week on week.
The index, released by China ...
Tuesday, 16 June 20
HIGHER IRON ORE PRICES OFFSET CORONAVIRUS-DRIVEN PRODUCTION RISK - FITCH RATINGS
Lower iron ore production in Brazil, resulting from rising coronavirus infections, should only marginally affect the cash flow of Vale and other gl ...
Tuesday, 16 June 20
SHALE SHOCKED - WOOD MACKENZIE
Capturing shut-ins in real time
Oil markets are searching for balance as the world reflects on the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. ...
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- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
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