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Wednesday, 22 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The unfolding last week of a trilateral defence pact between the United States, Australia, the United Kingdom (AUKUS) envisages a wide range of collaboration, but at its core is an agreement to start consultations to help Australia acquire a fleet of nuclear-propelled submarines. Believe AUKUS is an interesting development in the context of the already intensified geopolitical tensions between Australia and China, which have already led to a shift in trading patterns, particularly as far as dry bulk trade is concerned.
In particular, China’s ban on Australian coal since Q42020 has triggered inefficiencies in coal trading, with wide price arbitrages developing between China and the rest of the world for both metallurgical coal used by the steel industry and thermal coal used in power generation. The supply tightness has been more severe on metallurgical coal, the price of which has surged to record high levels, with China scrambling for supplies simulateneously with the rest of the world, steel production of which continues to grow. Australia is the world’s largest met coal exporter (approx. 59.0% of global seaborne met coal exports) and 2nd thermal coal exporter (approx. 22.0% of global seaborne thermal coal exports). China’s coking coal imports from Australia have come down to zero YTD 2021 vs a more than 50% share in imports during the previous two years. Imports from Mongolia so far have failed to meet increased demand amid COVID related supply disruptions and China had to increase its met coal imports share from Russia and the West (particularly the US and Canada), the last traditionally being primariy origins of imports for Europe. On the other hand, Australia coking coal is absorbed by steel mills outside China, as global steel production excl. the latter is up 16.0+% y-o-y (YTD Jan-Jul) and Australia coking coal has turned out cheaper than US coking coal despite the overall price surge. This trade shift has increased ton-miles and dry bulk fleet inefficiencies supporting Atlantic freight rates higher for longer.
In the meantime, China’s policy pledge for emissions cuts seems to be further supporting ton-miles for dry bulk, despite the country’s crude steel production declining y-o-y over the past two months and iron ore price collapsing below $100/ton recently from $230/ton in mid-July. We believe that in the short term, the severe coking coal and coke shortage in China as a result of the above policies is forcing crude steel production to adjust downwards earlier, but is incentivizing purchases of cheaper iron ore particularly from the Atlantic.
Till recently, demand for cargoes of crucial raw materials like iron ore and coal have overall jumped this year, outpacing active fleet growth, particularly if congestion is factored in, as economies recover from the pandemic. As new market dynamics develop and shape a new post pandemic landscape, we want to believe that these will become new fundamentals that can continue to propel ultimately demand for seaborne transportation of dry bulk commodities in the long run.
By Christopher Whitty,
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Sunday, 14 June 20
INDONESIAN COAL WAS STILL IN DEMAND; A 52,000-DWT SUPRAMAX FIXING DELIVERY CJK FOR A ROUND VOYAGE VIA INDONESIA AT $6,250 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market made new highs for the year this week after strong iron ore demand to the far east continued to develop in the mar ...
Friday, 12 June 20
CHINA CURBS COAL IMPORTS AFTER 5 MONTHS OF RECORD INFLOWS - SOURCES: REUTERS
China has stepped up customs checks for coal imports, leading to lengthy processing delays at ports, four sources familiar with the matter said, as ...
Friday, 12 June 20
COAL INDIA LIMITED SET FOR MARKETING DRIVE TO CREATE DEMAND - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
State-run miner Coal India (CIL), which is primarily focused on supplying coal to the power sector, is now reorienting its marketing to create dema ...
Friday, 12 June 20
MOODY'S REVISES BRENT OIL PRICE OUTLOOK TO $35/BARREL IN 2020 - TASS
Low oil prices are likely to exert the highest pressure on Iraq, Oman and Kuwait due to the limited space for the fiscal policy pursuit and higher ...
Thursday, 11 June 20
JAN-MAY, INDONESIA SHIPPED 175.15 MILLION TONS OF COAL TO ITS OVERSEAS BUYERS
Indonesia's coal production for the first 5 months of this year have reached 228 million tons. January – May 2020, Indonesia shipped US$ ...
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- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
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