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Wednesday, 22 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The unfolding last week of a trilateral defence pact between the United States, Australia, the United Kingdom (AUKUS) envisages a wide range of collaboration, but at its core is an agreement to start consultations to help Australia acquire a fleet of nuclear-propelled submarines. Believe AUKUS is an interesting development in the context of the already intensified geopolitical tensions between Australia and China, which have already led to a shift in trading patterns, particularly as far as dry bulk trade is concerned.
In particular, China’s ban on Australian coal since Q42020 has triggered inefficiencies in coal trading, with wide price arbitrages developing between China and the rest of the world for both metallurgical coal used by the steel industry and thermal coal used in power generation. The supply tightness has been more severe on metallurgical coal, the price of which has surged to record high levels, with China scrambling for supplies simulateneously with the rest of the world, steel production of which continues to grow. Australia is the world’s largest met coal exporter (approx. 59.0% of global seaborne met coal exports) and 2nd thermal coal exporter (approx. 22.0% of global seaborne thermal coal exports). China’s coking coal imports from Australia have come down to zero YTD 2021 vs a more than 50% share in imports during the previous two years. Imports from Mongolia so far have failed to meet increased demand amid COVID related supply disruptions and China had to increase its met coal imports share from Russia and the West (particularly the US and Canada), the last traditionally being primariy origins of imports for Europe. On the other hand, Australia coking coal is absorbed by steel mills outside China, as global steel production excl. the latter is up 16.0+% y-o-y (YTD Jan-Jul) and Australia coking coal has turned out cheaper than US coking coal despite the overall price surge. This trade shift has increased ton-miles and dry bulk fleet inefficiencies supporting Atlantic freight rates higher for longer.
In the meantime, China’s policy pledge for emissions cuts seems to be further supporting ton-miles for dry bulk, despite the country’s crude steel production declining y-o-y over the past two months and iron ore price collapsing below $100/ton recently from $230/ton in mid-July. We believe that in the short term, the severe coking coal and coke shortage in China as a result of the above policies is forcing crude steel production to adjust downwards earlier, but is incentivizing purchases of cheaper iron ore particularly from the Atlantic.
Till recently, demand for cargoes of crucial raw materials like iron ore and coal have overall jumped this year, outpacing active fleet growth, particularly if congestion is factored in, as economies recover from the pandemic. As new market dynamics develop and shape a new post pandemic landscape, we want to believe that these will become new fundamentals that can continue to propel ultimately demand for seaborne transportation of dry bulk commodities in the long run.
By Christopher Whitty,
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 19 June 20
INDIA'S COAL CONSUMPTION GROWTH IN 2019 SLOWEST SINCE 2001: BP STATS REVIEW - HINDU BUSINESS LINE
Growth in global energy markets slowed in 2019 in line with weaker economic growth, according to the bp Statistical Review of World Energy 2020. Th ...
Friday, 19 June 20
KOWEPO TO IMPORT 1,050,000 MT OF MIN 5300 NCV COAL FOR THREE YEARS
COALspot.com: Korera Western Power Co., Ltd. (KOWEPO) has issued an International tender for Total 1,050k MT Min.5,300 kcal/kg NCV coal for t ...
Thursday, 18 June 20
INDIA: GOVT'S PLAN TO CUT COAL IMPORT GOES FOR A TOSS AS FY20 BREAKS LOGISTICS CHAIN; LOCAL OUTPUT STAGNANT - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
Weak logistics support and disrupted supply chain towards the end of the last financial year 2019-20 hit the government’s plan to cut coal im ...
Thursday, 18 June 20
INDIA: THERMAL PLANTS TO OPERATE BELOW 53% CAPACITY IN FY21 AS POWER DEMAND DIPS - BUSINESS STANDARD
The Plant Load Factor (PLF) of thermal power stations across the country is projected to dip below 53 per cent in this fiscal. Muted power demand f ...
Wednesday, 17 June 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
After experiencing record earnings during the first half of the year, the focus of headlines concerning the tanker market has shifted from the deve ...
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- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- The University of Queensland
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Planning Commission, India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
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