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Wednesday, 22 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The unfolding last week of a trilateral defence pact between the United States, Australia, the United Kingdom (AUKUS) envisages a wide range of collaboration, but at its core is an agreement to start consultations to help Australia acquire a fleet of nuclear-propelled submarines. Believe AUKUS is an interesting development in the context of the already intensified geopolitical tensions between Australia and China, which have already led to a shift in trading patterns, particularly as far as dry bulk trade is concerned.
In particular, China’s ban on Australian coal since Q42020 has triggered inefficiencies in coal trading, with wide price arbitrages developing between China and the rest of the world for both metallurgical coal used by the steel industry and thermal coal used in power generation. The supply tightness has been more severe on metallurgical coal, the price of which has surged to record high levels, with China scrambling for supplies simulateneously with the rest of the world, steel production of which continues to grow. Australia is the world’s largest met coal exporter (approx. 59.0% of global seaborne met coal exports) and 2nd thermal coal exporter (approx. 22.0% of global seaborne thermal coal exports). China’s coking coal imports from Australia have come down to zero YTD 2021 vs a more than 50% share in imports during the previous two years. Imports from Mongolia so far have failed to meet increased demand amid COVID related supply disruptions and China had to increase its met coal imports share from Russia and the West (particularly the US and Canada), the last traditionally being primariy origins of imports for Europe. On the other hand, Australia coking coal is absorbed by steel mills outside China, as global steel production excl. the latter is up 16.0+% y-o-y (YTD Jan-Jul) and Australia coking coal has turned out cheaper than US coking coal despite the overall price surge. This trade shift has increased ton-miles and dry bulk fleet inefficiencies supporting Atlantic freight rates higher for longer.
In the meantime, China’s policy pledge for emissions cuts seems to be further supporting ton-miles for dry bulk, despite the country’s crude steel production declining y-o-y over the past two months and iron ore price collapsing below $100/ton recently from $230/ton in mid-July. We believe that in the short term, the severe coking coal and coke shortage in China as a result of the above policies is forcing crude steel production to adjust downwards earlier, but is incentivizing purchases of cheaper iron ore particularly from the Atlantic.
Till recently, demand for cargoes of crucial raw materials like iron ore and coal have overall jumped this year, outpacing active fleet growth, particularly if congestion is factored in, as economies recover from the pandemic. As new market dynamics develop and shape a new post pandemic landscape, we want to believe that these will become new fundamentals that can continue to propel ultimately demand for seaborne transportation of dry bulk commodities in the long run.
By Christopher Whitty,
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 11 June 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE EDGES UP - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price rose slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
Wednesday, 10 June 20
OPEC+ CUTS EXTENSION TO ACCELERATE MARKET REBALANCING - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings-London-08 June 2020: The OPEC+ agreement to extend by one month record oil production cuts should accelerate market rebalancing, Fitc ...
Wednesday, 10 June 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
In contrast to the economic projections of the past two years for the first half of 2020, the oil & gas industry and those involved in it faced ...
Wednesday, 10 June 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX DOWN 0.19 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 123.71 points Monday, down 0.19 percent week on week.
The index, released by Chi ...
Tuesday, 09 June 20
BUNKER SUPPLY CONTRACTS - KEY CONSIDERATIONS FOR THE BUYER - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Regardless of whether a buyer purchases fuel directly from physical suppliers or via brokers or traders and whether sale ...
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- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- PTC India Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
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