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Wednesday, 22 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The unfolding last week of a trilateral defence pact between the United States, Australia, the United Kingdom (AUKUS) envisages a wide range of collaboration, but at its core is an agreement to start consultations to help Australia acquire a fleet of nuclear-propelled submarines. Believe AUKUS is an interesting development in the context of the already intensified geopolitical tensions between Australia and China, which have already led to a shift in trading patterns, particularly as far as dry bulk trade is concerned.
In particular, China’s ban on Australian coal since Q42020 has triggered inefficiencies in coal trading, with wide price arbitrages developing between China and the rest of the world for both metallurgical coal used by the steel industry and thermal coal used in power generation. The supply tightness has been more severe on metallurgical coal, the price of which has surged to record high levels, with China scrambling for supplies simulateneously with the rest of the world, steel production of which continues to grow. Australia is the world’s largest met coal exporter (approx. 59.0% of global seaborne met coal exports) and 2nd thermal coal exporter (approx. 22.0% of global seaborne thermal coal exports). China’s coking coal imports from Australia have come down to zero YTD 2021 vs a more than 50% share in imports during the previous two years. Imports from Mongolia so far have failed to meet increased demand amid COVID related supply disruptions and China had to increase its met coal imports share from Russia and the West (particularly the US and Canada), the last traditionally being primariy origins of imports for Europe. On the other hand, Australia coking coal is absorbed by steel mills outside China, as global steel production excl. the latter is up 16.0+% y-o-y (YTD Jan-Jul) and Australia coking coal has turned out cheaper than US coking coal despite the overall price surge. This trade shift has increased ton-miles and dry bulk fleet inefficiencies supporting Atlantic freight rates higher for longer.
In the meantime, China’s policy pledge for emissions cuts seems to be further supporting ton-miles for dry bulk, despite the country’s crude steel production declining y-o-y over the past two months and iron ore price collapsing below $100/ton recently from $230/ton in mid-July. We believe that in the short term, the severe coking coal and coke shortage in China as a result of the above policies is forcing crude steel production to adjust downwards earlier, but is incentivizing purchases of cheaper iron ore particularly from the Atlantic.
Till recently, demand for cargoes of crucial raw materials like iron ore and coal have overall jumped this year, outpacing active fleet growth, particularly if congestion is factored in, as economies recover from the pandemic. As new market dynamics develop and shape a new post pandemic landscape, we want to believe that these will become new fundamentals that can continue to propel ultimately demand for seaborne transportation of dry bulk commodities in the long run.
By Christopher Whitty,
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Saturday, 06 June 20
KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER CO INVITED COAL BIDS FOR MIN 5600 NCV COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea’s KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER CO., LTD. (KOEN) has issued an international tender for 270,000 Tons (MT) min. 5600 NCV co ...
Friday, 05 June 20
COAL INDIA ESTIMATES PRODUCTION GROWTH BY OVERBURDEN REMOVAL - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
PSU miner Coal India (CIL) has now limited mining only to Overburden Removal (OBR) with falling demand of coal. The mining behemoth is now keeping ...
Friday, 05 June 20
U.S. SANCTIONS COMPLIANCE GUIDANCE RELEASED FOR THE GLOBAL MARITIME, ENERGY AND METALS SECTORS - AKIN GUMP
Key Points
On May 14, 2020, OFAC, the Department of State and the U.S. Coast Guard jointly released guidance for persons involved in the ma ...
Friday, 05 June 20
IN THE FIRST 5 MONTHS OF 2020 AUSTRALIA SHIPPED 6.8 MLN TONNES TO VIETNAM - BANCHERO COSTA
In the first 5 months of 2020, global seaborne coal trade declined by as much as -8% year-on-year, according to vessel tracking data from Ref ...
Thursday, 04 June 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE EDGES UP - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price rose slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
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- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
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