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Wednesday, 22 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The unfolding last week of a trilateral defence pact between the United States, Australia, the United Kingdom (AUKUS) envisages a wide range of collaboration, but at its core is an agreement to start consultations to help Australia acquire a fleet of nuclear-propelled submarines. Believe AUKUS is an interesting development in the context of the already intensified geopolitical tensions between Australia and China, which have already led to a shift in trading patterns, particularly as far as dry bulk trade is concerned.
In particular, China’s ban on Australian coal since Q42020 has triggered inefficiencies in coal trading, with wide price arbitrages developing between China and the rest of the world for both metallurgical coal used by the steel industry and thermal coal used in power generation. The supply tightness has been more severe on metallurgical coal, the price of which has surged to record high levels, with China scrambling for supplies simulateneously with the rest of the world, steel production of which continues to grow. Australia is the world’s largest met coal exporter (approx. 59.0% of global seaborne met coal exports) and 2nd thermal coal exporter (approx. 22.0% of global seaborne thermal coal exports). China’s coking coal imports from Australia have come down to zero YTD 2021 vs a more than 50% share in imports during the previous two years. Imports from Mongolia so far have failed to meet increased demand amid COVID related supply disruptions and China had to increase its met coal imports share from Russia and the West (particularly the US and Canada), the last traditionally being primariy origins of imports for Europe. On the other hand, Australia coking coal is absorbed by steel mills outside China, as global steel production excl. the latter is up 16.0+% y-o-y (YTD Jan-Jul) and Australia coking coal has turned out cheaper than US coking coal despite the overall price surge. This trade shift has increased ton-miles and dry bulk fleet inefficiencies supporting Atlantic freight rates higher for longer.
In the meantime, China’s policy pledge for emissions cuts seems to be further supporting ton-miles for dry bulk, despite the country’s crude steel production declining y-o-y over the past two months and iron ore price collapsing below $100/ton recently from $230/ton in mid-July. We believe that in the short term, the severe coking coal and coke shortage in China as a result of the above policies is forcing crude steel production to adjust downwards earlier, but is incentivizing purchases of cheaper iron ore particularly from the Atlantic.
Till recently, demand for cargoes of crucial raw materials like iron ore and coal have overall jumped this year, outpacing active fleet growth, particularly if congestion is factored in, as economies recover from the pandemic. As new market dynamics develop and shape a new post pandemic landscape, we want to believe that these will become new fundamentals that can continue to propel ultimately demand for seaborne transportation of dry bulk commodities in the long run.
By Christopher Whitty,
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 02 June 20
THE HISTORIC DECLINE OF US COAL - WOOD MACKENZIE
The first commercial power plant in the US was Thomas Edison’s coal-fired Pearl Street station in lower Manhattan, which started operating in ...
Tuesday, 02 June 20
COAL INDIA'S MAY SALES DRIVEN SHARPLY LOWER BY SLUMP IN POWER DEMAND - REUTER
Coal India’s sales fell 23.3% in May as utilities refrained from purchases amid record stockpiles and tepid demand because of a nationwide lo ...
Tuesday, 02 June 20
TUAH TURANGGA AGUNG RECORDED 4.54 MILLION TONS OF COAL SALES IN THE FIRST FOUR MONTHS OF 2020
PT United Tractors Tbk through its subsidiary, PT Tuah Turangga Agung recorded 4.54 million tons of coal sales in the first four months of 2020, up ...
Tuesday, 02 June 20
SOURING SINO-AUSTRALIA TRADE RELATIONS - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Cooling relations between the commodity powerhouses of China and Australia may point to trade troubles ahead when the world emerges from the Covid- ...
Tuesday, 02 June 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX DOWN 0.86 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 123.95 points Monday, down 0.86 percent week on week.
The index, released by Chi ...
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- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Planning Commission, India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- PTC India Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
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