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Wednesday, 22 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The unfolding last week of a trilateral defence pact between the United States, Australia, the United Kingdom (AUKUS) envisages a wide range of collaboration, but at its core is an agreement to start consultations to help Australia acquire a fleet of nuclear-propelled submarines. Believe AUKUS is an interesting development in the context of the already intensified geopolitical tensions between Australia and China, which have already led to a shift in trading patterns, particularly as far as dry bulk trade is concerned.
In particular, China’s ban on Australian coal since Q42020 has triggered inefficiencies in coal trading, with wide price arbitrages developing between China and the rest of the world for both metallurgical coal used by the steel industry and thermal coal used in power generation. The supply tightness has been more severe on metallurgical coal, the price of which has surged to record high levels, with China scrambling for supplies simulateneously with the rest of the world, steel production of which continues to grow. Australia is the world’s largest met coal exporter (approx. 59.0% of global seaborne met coal exports) and 2nd thermal coal exporter (approx. 22.0% of global seaborne thermal coal exports). China’s coking coal imports from Australia have come down to zero YTD 2021 vs a more than 50% share in imports during the previous two years. Imports from Mongolia so far have failed to meet increased demand amid COVID related supply disruptions and China had to increase its met coal imports share from Russia and the West (particularly the US and Canada), the last traditionally being primariy origins of imports for Europe. On the other hand, Australia coking coal is absorbed by steel mills outside China, as global steel production excl. the latter is up 16.0+% y-o-y (YTD Jan-Jul) and Australia coking coal has turned out cheaper than US coking coal despite the overall price surge. This trade shift has increased ton-miles and dry bulk fleet inefficiencies supporting Atlantic freight rates higher for longer.
In the meantime, China’s policy pledge for emissions cuts seems to be further supporting ton-miles for dry bulk, despite the country’s crude steel production declining y-o-y over the past two months and iron ore price collapsing below $100/ton recently from $230/ton in mid-July. We believe that in the short term, the severe coking coal and coke shortage in China as a result of the above policies is forcing crude steel production to adjust downwards earlier, but is incentivizing purchases of cheaper iron ore particularly from the Atlantic.
Till recently, demand for cargoes of crucial raw materials like iron ore and coal have overall jumped this year, outpacing active fleet growth, particularly if congestion is factored in, as economies recover from the pandemic. As new market dynamics develop and shape a new post pandemic landscape, we want to believe that these will become new fundamentals that can continue to propel ultimately demand for seaborne transportation of dry bulk commodities in the long run.
By Christopher Whitty,
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 29 May 20
DRY BULK SHIPPING: NO QUICK RECOVERY FOR THE DRY BULK MARKET AS COVID-19 DIGS DEEPER
The outlook is poor for dry bulk, as the negative demand shock and overcapacity come together to send rates to multi-year lows, even a return to wo ...
Thursday, 28 May 20
COVID-19: A FORCE MAJEURE EVENT? - KYPRIANOU
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
While seeing the unexpected COVID-19 outbreak expanding worldwide and the first cases being identified in Cyprus, the com ...
Thursday, 28 May 20
OIL DEMAND RECOVERED BY 20% IN MAY AGAINST APRIL: RUSSIAN ENERGY MINISTER - TASS
Oil demand remains at a low level but the demand in May increased by 20% against April, Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak said, cited by the ...
Thursday, 28 May 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Earlier in May, China’s top leaders convened for the annual National People's Congress, following over two months of delays due to the co ...
Wednesday, 27 May 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX UP 0.94 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 125.03 points Monday, up 0.94 percent week on week.
The index, released by China ...
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- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- The University of Queensland
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Australian Coal Association
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
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