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Wednesday, 22 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The unfolding last week of a trilateral defence pact between the United States, Australia, the United Kingdom (AUKUS) envisages a wide range of collaboration, but at its core is an agreement to start consultations to help Australia acquire a fleet of nuclear-propelled submarines. Believe AUKUS is an interesting development in the context of the already intensified geopolitical tensions between Australia and China, which have already led to a shift in trading patterns, particularly as far as dry bulk trade is concerned.
In particular, China’s ban on Australian coal since Q42020 has triggered inefficiencies in coal trading, with wide price arbitrages developing between China and the rest of the world for both metallurgical coal used by the steel industry and thermal coal used in power generation. The supply tightness has been more severe on metallurgical coal, the price of which has surged to record high levels, with China scrambling for supplies simulateneously with the rest of the world, steel production of which continues to grow. Australia is the world’s largest met coal exporter (approx. 59.0% of global seaborne met coal exports) and 2nd thermal coal exporter (approx. 22.0% of global seaborne thermal coal exports). China’s coking coal imports from Australia have come down to zero YTD 2021 vs a more than 50% share in imports during the previous two years. Imports from Mongolia so far have failed to meet increased demand amid COVID related supply disruptions and China had to increase its met coal imports share from Russia and the West (particularly the US and Canada), the last traditionally being primariy origins of imports for Europe. On the other hand, Australia coking coal is absorbed by steel mills outside China, as global steel production excl. the latter is up 16.0+% y-o-y (YTD Jan-Jul) and Australia coking coal has turned out cheaper than US coking coal despite the overall price surge. This trade shift has increased ton-miles and dry bulk fleet inefficiencies supporting Atlantic freight rates higher for longer.
In the meantime, China’s policy pledge for emissions cuts seems to be further supporting ton-miles for dry bulk, despite the country’s crude steel production declining y-o-y over the past two months and iron ore price collapsing below $100/ton recently from $230/ton in mid-July. We believe that in the short term, the severe coking coal and coke shortage in China as a result of the above policies is forcing crude steel production to adjust downwards earlier, but is incentivizing purchases of cheaper iron ore particularly from the Atlantic.
Till recently, demand for cargoes of crucial raw materials like iron ore and coal have overall jumped this year, outpacing active fleet growth, particularly if congestion is factored in, as economies recover from the pandemic. As new market dynamics develop and shape a new post pandemic landscape, we want to believe that these will become new fundamentals that can continue to propel ultimately demand for seaborne transportation of dry bulk commodities in the long run.
By Christopher Whitty,
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 20 May 20
ADARO ENERGY BOOKED A 5% INCREASE IN COAL PRODUCTION VOLUME Y-O-Y IN 1Q2020
PT. Adaro Energy Tbk, Indonesia’s one of the largest coal miner, booked a 5% increase in coal production volume year-over-year in 1Q2020. The ...
Wednesday, 20 May 20
BRAZIL SOYBEAN EXPORTS HAVE BEEN SURGING THIS YEAR - BANCHERO COSTA
Brazil soybean exports have been surging this year, thanks to a combination of strong demand from China, a bumper crop, and favourable exchange rat ...
Wednesday, 20 May 20
MARKET INSIGHT
Seafarers keep maritime trade going so that the food, raw materials, energy and manufactured goods on which so many depend can continue moving arou ...
Tuesday, 19 May 20
AMENDMENT OF THE INDONESIAN MINING LAW: TYING UP LOOSE ENDS - UMBRA
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The finalized draft of Law on the amendment of the Mining Law (Bill) was publicly released on 11 May 2020 and was then ap ...
Monday, 18 May 20
TAKING ADVANTAGE OF VIRUS DISTRACTION - BALTIC EXCHANGE
As the industry grapples to deal with exceptional Covid-19-related challenges, a deeper threat is coming to the fore. At this time of crisis, more ...
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- White Energy Company Limited
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Minerals Council of Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- The University of Queensland
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
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