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Wednesday, 22 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The unfolding last week of a trilateral defence pact between the United States, Australia, the United Kingdom (AUKUS) envisages a wide range of collaboration, but at its core is an agreement to start consultations to help Australia acquire a fleet of nuclear-propelled submarines. Believe AUKUS is an interesting development in the context of the already intensified geopolitical tensions between Australia and China, which have already led to a shift in trading patterns, particularly as far as dry bulk trade is concerned.
In particular, China’s ban on Australian coal since Q42020 has triggered inefficiencies in coal trading, with wide price arbitrages developing between China and the rest of the world for both metallurgical coal used by the steel industry and thermal coal used in power generation. The supply tightness has been more severe on metallurgical coal, the price of which has surged to record high levels, with China scrambling for supplies simulateneously with the rest of the world, steel production of which continues to grow. Australia is the world’s largest met coal exporter (approx. 59.0% of global seaborne met coal exports) and 2nd thermal coal exporter (approx. 22.0% of global seaborne thermal coal exports). China’s coking coal imports from Australia have come down to zero YTD 2021 vs a more than 50% share in imports during the previous two years. Imports from Mongolia so far have failed to meet increased demand amid COVID related supply disruptions and China had to increase its met coal imports share from Russia and the West (particularly the US and Canada), the last traditionally being primariy origins of imports for Europe. On the other hand, Australia coking coal is absorbed by steel mills outside China, as global steel production excl. the latter is up 16.0+% y-o-y (YTD Jan-Jul) and Australia coking coal has turned out cheaper than US coking coal despite the overall price surge. This trade shift has increased ton-miles and dry bulk fleet inefficiencies supporting Atlantic freight rates higher for longer.
In the meantime, China’s policy pledge for emissions cuts seems to be further supporting ton-miles for dry bulk, despite the country’s crude steel production declining y-o-y over the past two months and iron ore price collapsing below $100/ton recently from $230/ton in mid-July. We believe that in the short term, the severe coking coal and coke shortage in China as a result of the above policies is forcing crude steel production to adjust downwards earlier, but is incentivizing purchases of cheaper iron ore particularly from the Atlantic.
Till recently, demand for cargoes of crucial raw materials like iron ore and coal have overall jumped this year, outpacing active fleet growth, particularly if congestion is factored in, as economies recover from the pandemic. As new market dynamics develop and shape a new post pandemic landscape, we want to believe that these will become new fundamentals that can continue to propel ultimately demand for seaborne transportation of dry bulk commodities in the long run.
By Christopher Whitty,
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 14 May 20
NEW COVID-19 GUIDELINES FOCUS ON SAFE INTERFACE BETWEEN SHIP AND SHORE STAFF - GARD
At a time when the COVID-19 pandemic is affecting the global population, it is important that ships’ crew and port workers protect each other ...
Wednesday, 13 May 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX DOWN 0.4 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 124.93 points Monday, down 0.4 percent week on week.
The index, released by Chin ...
Tuesday, 12 May 20
IN THE FIRST 4 MONTHS OF 2020, SOUTH KOREA IMPORTED 46.6 MLN TONNES OF CRUDE OIL BY SEA, A NET DECLINE OF 14.1% YOY - BC
South Korea is certainly one of the countries which has handled better the current Covid-19 crisis. In the first week of May 2020, new cases of ...
Tuesday, 12 May 20
OIL MARKET TURBULENCE PIVOTS FOCUS ON FLOATING STORAGE TECHNICAL NEEDS - LLOYD'S REGISTER
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Negative oil prices and off-the-scale volatility in crude markets are positive for floating storage, as the next chapter ...
Tuesday, 12 May 20
A GLOBAL ECONOMIC RESTART HAS SLOWLY BEGUN AS COUNTRIES AROUND THE WORLD GRADUALLY - ALLIED
A global economic restart has slowly begun as countries around the world gradually set their return back to “normality”. Yet by all mea ...
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- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Australian Coal Association
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
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