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Wednesday, 22 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The unfolding last week of a trilateral defence pact between the United States, Australia, the United Kingdom (AUKUS) envisages a wide range of collaboration, but at its core is an agreement to start consultations to help Australia acquire a fleet of nuclear-propelled submarines. Believe AUKUS is an interesting development in the context of the already intensified geopolitical tensions between Australia and China, which have already led to a shift in trading patterns, particularly as far as dry bulk trade is concerned.
In particular, China’s ban on Australian coal since Q42020 has triggered inefficiencies in coal trading, with wide price arbitrages developing between China and the rest of the world for both metallurgical coal used by the steel industry and thermal coal used in power generation. The supply tightness has been more severe on metallurgical coal, the price of which has surged to record high levels, with China scrambling for supplies simulateneously with the rest of the world, steel production of which continues to grow. Australia is the world’s largest met coal exporter (approx. 59.0% of global seaborne met coal exports) and 2nd thermal coal exporter (approx. 22.0% of global seaborne thermal coal exports). China’s coking coal imports from Australia have come down to zero YTD 2021 vs a more than 50% share in imports during the previous two years. Imports from Mongolia so far have failed to meet increased demand amid COVID related supply disruptions and China had to increase its met coal imports share from Russia and the West (particularly the US and Canada), the last traditionally being primariy origins of imports for Europe. On the other hand, Australia coking coal is absorbed by steel mills outside China, as global steel production excl. the latter is up 16.0+% y-o-y (YTD Jan-Jul) and Australia coking coal has turned out cheaper than US coking coal despite the overall price surge. This trade shift has increased ton-miles and dry bulk fleet inefficiencies supporting Atlantic freight rates higher for longer.
In the meantime, China’s policy pledge for emissions cuts seems to be further supporting ton-miles for dry bulk, despite the country’s crude steel production declining y-o-y over the past two months and iron ore price collapsing below $100/ton recently from $230/ton in mid-July. We believe that in the short term, the severe coking coal and coke shortage in China as a result of the above policies is forcing crude steel production to adjust downwards earlier, but is incentivizing purchases of cheaper iron ore particularly from the Atlantic.
Till recently, demand for cargoes of crucial raw materials like iron ore and coal have overall jumped this year, outpacing active fleet growth, particularly if congestion is factored in, as economies recover from the pandemic. As new market dynamics develop and shape a new post pandemic landscape, we want to believe that these will become new fundamentals that can continue to propel ultimately demand for seaborne transportation of dry bulk commodities in the long run.
By Christopher Whitty,
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 12 May 20
CAN INDONESIA'S COAL INDUSTRY SURVIVE COVID-19? : IEEFA
Pandemic Lockdown and Slumping Prices Put Extreme Pressure on Coal Miners
Executive Summary
While attention has been focused on th ...
Tuesday, 12 May 20
INDIA'S COAL PRODUCTION TO CLOCK RECORD 700 MILLION TONNES IN FY21: COAL SECRETARY - PTI
Coal Secretary Anil Jain said FY20 coal production was lower than the target of 660 million tonnes because of flooding of a key coal mine.
&nbs ...
Monday, 11 May 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE DROPS SLIGHTLY - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price dropped slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge ...
Monday, 11 May 20
CORONAVIRUS PUTS MORE THAN A THIRD OF SEABORNE COAL SUPPLY AT RISK - WOOD MACKENZIE
The full impact of the coronavirus outbreak on the global economy is yet unclear. However, the demand destruction is already becoming evident, with ...
Saturday, 09 May 20
ANGLO AMERICAN CONSIDERS SPINNING OFF SOUTH AFRICAN COAL OPERATIONS - REUTERS
Diversified miner Anglo American said on Thursday it prefers unbundling and listing its thermal coal operations in South Africa on the Johannesburg ...
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- Central Electricity Authority - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Australian Coal Association
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Parliament of New Zealand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
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