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Wednesday, 22 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The unfolding last week of a trilateral defence pact between the United States, Australia, the United Kingdom (AUKUS) envisages a wide range of collaboration, but at its core is an agreement to start consultations to help Australia acquire a fleet of nuclear-propelled submarines. Believe AUKUS is an interesting development in the context of the already intensified geopolitical tensions between Australia and China, which have already led to a shift in trading patterns, particularly as far as dry bulk trade is concerned.
In particular, China’s ban on Australian coal since Q42020 has triggered inefficiencies in coal trading, with wide price arbitrages developing between China and the rest of the world for both metallurgical coal used by the steel industry and thermal coal used in power generation. The supply tightness has been more severe on metallurgical coal, the price of which has surged to record high levels, with China scrambling for supplies simulateneously with the rest of the world, steel production of which continues to grow. Australia is the world’s largest met coal exporter (approx. 59.0% of global seaborne met coal exports) and 2nd thermal coal exporter (approx. 22.0% of global seaborne thermal coal exports). China’s coking coal imports from Australia have come down to zero YTD 2021 vs a more than 50% share in imports during the previous two years. Imports from Mongolia so far have failed to meet increased demand amid COVID related supply disruptions and China had to increase its met coal imports share from Russia and the West (particularly the US and Canada), the last traditionally being primariy origins of imports for Europe. On the other hand, Australia coking coal is absorbed by steel mills outside China, as global steel production excl. the latter is up 16.0+% y-o-y (YTD Jan-Jul) and Australia coking coal has turned out cheaper than US coking coal despite the overall price surge. This trade shift has increased ton-miles and dry bulk fleet inefficiencies supporting Atlantic freight rates higher for longer.
In the meantime, China’s policy pledge for emissions cuts seems to be further supporting ton-miles for dry bulk, despite the country’s crude steel production declining y-o-y over the past two months and iron ore price collapsing below $100/ton recently from $230/ton in mid-July. We believe that in the short term, the severe coking coal and coke shortage in China as a result of the above policies is forcing crude steel production to adjust downwards earlier, but is incentivizing purchases of cheaper iron ore particularly from the Atlantic.
Till recently, demand for cargoes of crucial raw materials like iron ore and coal have overall jumped this year, outpacing active fleet growth, particularly if congestion is factored in, as economies recover from the pandemic. As new market dynamics develop and shape a new post pandemic landscape, we want to believe that these will become new fundamentals that can continue to propel ultimately demand for seaborne transportation of dry bulk commodities in the long run.
By Christopher Whitty,
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 07 May 20
UKRAINE PRODUCES 2.5 MLN TONNES OF COAL IN APRIL - UKRINFORM
Ukraine produced 2.5 million tonnes of coal in April 2020, which is 39% less than planned, according to the Coal Miners Union of Ukraine.
...
Thursday, 07 May 20
INDIA: GOVT TO DO AWAY WITH MANDATORY WASHING OF COAL FOR THERMAL POWER UNITS - BUSINESS STANDARD
The Centre is planning to do away with the mandatory requirement of washing of coal before it is transported to thermal power stations. The Ministr ...
Thursday, 07 May 20
CIL'S SUPPLY TO POWER SECTOR FALLS IN MARCH AMID SLUMP IN COAL DEMAND - PTI
The supply of coal to the power sector by state-owned CIL registered a decline of eight per cent to 42.30 million tonne in March in the wake of slu ...
Thursday, 07 May 20
COAL PRICE REFERENCE FALL SHARPLY IN MAY 2020 DUE TO CORONAVIRUS OUTBREAK
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal ...
Wednesday, 06 May 20
KOSPO INVITED COAL BIDS FOR LOW CALORIFIC VALUE COAL
COALspot.com: Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO) has issued an International tender for 160,000 Metric Tons (MT) Low Calorific Value Coal for J ...
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- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- The University of Queensland
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Australian Coal Association
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- PTC India Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
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