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Wednesday, 22 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The unfolding last week of a trilateral defence pact between the United States, Australia, the United Kingdom (AUKUS) envisages a wide range of collaboration, but at its core is an agreement to start consultations to help Australia acquire a fleet of nuclear-propelled submarines. Believe AUKUS is an interesting development in the context of the already intensified geopolitical tensions between Australia and China, which have already led to a shift in trading patterns, particularly as far as dry bulk trade is concerned.
In particular, China’s ban on Australian coal since Q42020 has triggered inefficiencies in coal trading, with wide price arbitrages developing between China and the rest of the world for both metallurgical coal used by the steel industry and thermal coal used in power generation. The supply tightness has been more severe on metallurgical coal, the price of which has surged to record high levels, with China scrambling for supplies simulateneously with the rest of the world, steel production of which continues to grow. Australia is the world’s largest met coal exporter (approx. 59.0% of global seaborne met coal exports) and 2nd thermal coal exporter (approx. 22.0% of global seaborne thermal coal exports). China’s coking coal imports from Australia have come down to zero YTD 2021 vs a more than 50% share in imports during the previous two years. Imports from Mongolia so far have failed to meet increased demand amid COVID related supply disruptions and China had to increase its met coal imports share from Russia and the West (particularly the US and Canada), the last traditionally being primariy origins of imports for Europe. On the other hand, Australia coking coal is absorbed by steel mills outside China, as global steel production excl. the latter is up 16.0+% y-o-y (YTD Jan-Jul) and Australia coking coal has turned out cheaper than US coking coal despite the overall price surge. This trade shift has increased ton-miles and dry bulk fleet inefficiencies supporting Atlantic freight rates higher for longer.
In the meantime, China’s policy pledge for emissions cuts seems to be further supporting ton-miles for dry bulk, despite the country’s crude steel production declining y-o-y over the past two months and iron ore price collapsing below $100/ton recently from $230/ton in mid-July. We believe that in the short term, the severe coking coal and coke shortage in China as a result of the above policies is forcing crude steel production to adjust downwards earlier, but is incentivizing purchases of cheaper iron ore particularly from the Atlantic.
Till recently, demand for cargoes of crucial raw materials like iron ore and coal have overall jumped this year, outpacing active fleet growth, particularly if congestion is factored in, as economies recover from the pandemic. As new market dynamics develop and shape a new post pandemic landscape, we want to believe that these will become new fundamentals that can continue to propel ultimately demand for seaborne transportation of dry bulk commodities in the long run.
By Christopher Whitty,
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 04 May 20
U.S. ESTIMATED COAL PRODUCTION FALL 39.4% YEAR ON YEAR IN THE WEEK ENDED APRIL 25 - EIA
Estimated U.S. coal production totaled about 8.6 million short tons (MMst) For the week ended April 25, 2020, says EIA in its latest report.
E ...
Saturday, 02 May 20
SUPRAMAX: ASIA, STRONGER NUMBERS - A 55.000-DWT WAS FIXED FROM INDONESIA TO CHINA IN THE MID $6,000S - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A tepid week for the big ships, as macro concerns continued to weigh heavily on the index. All of the major voyage routes lost value, ...
Friday, 01 May 20
KOSPO INVITED OFFER FOR 5600 NCV COAL FOR Q3 2020 LOADING
COALspot.com: Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO) has issued an International tender for 260,000 Metric Tons (MT) steam coal for Boryeong Power ...
Friday, 01 May 20
GLOBAL COAL DEMAND TO FALL BY ABOUT 8% IN 2020,THE LARGEST DROP SINCE WORLD WAR II - IEA
We expect global coal demand to fall by about 8% in 2020, the largest drop since World War II, with coal use declining in virtually every sector of ...
Friday, 01 May 20
GLOBAL COAL DEMAND TO FALL BY 8% IN Q1 2020 RELATIVE TO Q1 2019 - IEA
We expect global coal demand to fall by 8% in Q1 2020 relative to Q1 2019. This significant drop was driven by lower demand in the electricity sect ...
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- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Australian Coal Association
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- PTC India Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
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