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Wednesday, 22 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The unfolding last week of a trilateral defence pact between the United States, Australia, the United Kingdom (AUKUS) envisages a wide range of collaboration, but at its core is an agreement to start consultations to help Australia acquire a fleet of nuclear-propelled submarines. Believe AUKUS is an interesting development in the context of the already intensified geopolitical tensions between Australia and China, which have already led to a shift in trading patterns, particularly as far as dry bulk trade is concerned.
In particular, China’s ban on Australian coal since Q42020 has triggered inefficiencies in coal trading, with wide price arbitrages developing between China and the rest of the world for both metallurgical coal used by the steel industry and thermal coal used in power generation. The supply tightness has been more severe on metallurgical coal, the price of which has surged to record high levels, with China scrambling for supplies simulateneously with the rest of the world, steel production of which continues to grow. Australia is the world’s largest met coal exporter (approx. 59.0% of global seaborne met coal exports) and 2nd thermal coal exporter (approx. 22.0% of global seaborne thermal coal exports). China’s coking coal imports from Australia have come down to zero YTD 2021 vs a more than 50% share in imports during the previous two years. Imports from Mongolia so far have failed to meet increased demand amid COVID related supply disruptions and China had to increase its met coal imports share from Russia and the West (particularly the US and Canada), the last traditionally being primariy origins of imports for Europe. On the other hand, Australia coking coal is absorbed by steel mills outside China, as global steel production excl. the latter is up 16.0+% y-o-y (YTD Jan-Jul) and Australia coking coal has turned out cheaper than US coking coal despite the overall price surge. This trade shift has increased ton-miles and dry bulk fleet inefficiencies supporting Atlantic freight rates higher for longer.
In the meantime, China’s policy pledge for emissions cuts seems to be further supporting ton-miles for dry bulk, despite the country’s crude steel production declining y-o-y over the past two months and iron ore price collapsing below $100/ton recently from $230/ton in mid-July. We believe that in the short term, the severe coking coal and coke shortage in China as a result of the above policies is forcing crude steel production to adjust downwards earlier, but is incentivizing purchases of cheaper iron ore particularly from the Atlantic.
Till recently, demand for cargoes of crucial raw materials like iron ore and coal have overall jumped this year, outpacing active fleet growth, particularly if congestion is factored in, as economies recover from the pandemic. As new market dynamics develop and shape a new post pandemic landscape, we want to believe that these will become new fundamentals that can continue to propel ultimately demand for seaborne transportation of dry bulk commodities in the long run.
By Christopher Whitty,
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 06 May 20
COST CHALLENGES IN A US$20/BBL WORLD - WOOD MACKENZIE
A new approach is needed to ensure supply sector resilience
How will US$20/bbl affect the oil and gas supply chain?
It’s going to g ...
Wednesday, 06 May 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
It comes as no surprise that activity in the dry bulk SnP market remains soft, with asset values caught in the downward spiral generated by the Cov ...
Wednesday, 06 May 20
FLOATING STORAGE OF OIL CARGOES - STANDARD CLUB
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Due to a combination of circumstances there is now a worldwide shortage of storage space ashore for both unrefi ...
Wednesday, 06 May 20
IRON ORE TRADE REMAINS REMARKABLY RESILIENT THIS YEAR, AT LEAST IN ASIA - BANCHERO COSTA
Iron ore trade remains remarkably resilient this year, at least in Asia, despite the global economic impact from COVID-19. In the first 4 months of ...
Tuesday, 05 May 20
SUPRAMAXES: YTD SLIDE HAS BEEN 45%, WITH THE AVERAGE FOR 2020 TCA HOLDING AT US$5,793 - ALLIED
It has been almost three months since the WHO officially categorized the current coronavirus outbreak as a global pandemic, an outbreak that has br ...
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- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- The University of Queensland
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- PTC India Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
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