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Wednesday, 22 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The unfolding last week of a trilateral defence pact between the United States, Australia, the United Kingdom (AUKUS) envisages a wide range of collaboration, but at its core is an agreement to start consultations to help Australia acquire a fleet of nuclear-propelled submarines. Believe AUKUS is an interesting development in the context of the already intensified geopolitical tensions between Australia and China, which have already led to a shift in trading patterns, particularly as far as dry bulk trade is concerned.
In particular, China’s ban on Australian coal since Q42020 has triggered inefficiencies in coal trading, with wide price arbitrages developing between China and the rest of the world for both metallurgical coal used by the steel industry and thermal coal used in power generation. The supply tightness has been more severe on metallurgical coal, the price of which has surged to record high levels, with China scrambling for supplies simulateneously with the rest of the world, steel production of which continues to grow. Australia is the world’s largest met coal exporter (approx. 59.0% of global seaborne met coal exports) and 2nd thermal coal exporter (approx. 22.0% of global seaborne thermal coal exports). China’s coking coal imports from Australia have come down to zero YTD 2021 vs a more than 50% share in imports during the previous two years. Imports from Mongolia so far have failed to meet increased demand amid COVID related supply disruptions and China had to increase its met coal imports share from Russia and the West (particularly the US and Canada), the last traditionally being primariy origins of imports for Europe. On the other hand, Australia coking coal is absorbed by steel mills outside China, as global steel production excl. the latter is up 16.0+% y-o-y (YTD Jan-Jul) and Australia coking coal has turned out cheaper than US coking coal despite the overall price surge. This trade shift has increased ton-miles and dry bulk fleet inefficiencies supporting Atlantic freight rates higher for longer.
In the meantime, China’s policy pledge for emissions cuts seems to be further supporting ton-miles for dry bulk, despite the country’s crude steel production declining y-o-y over the past two months and iron ore price collapsing below $100/ton recently from $230/ton in mid-July. We believe that in the short term, the severe coking coal and coke shortage in China as a result of the above policies is forcing crude steel production to adjust downwards earlier, but is incentivizing purchases of cheaper iron ore particularly from the Atlantic.
Till recently, demand for cargoes of crucial raw materials like iron ore and coal have overall jumped this year, outpacing active fleet growth, particularly if congestion is factored in, as economies recover from the pandemic. As new market dynamics develop and shape a new post pandemic landscape, we want to believe that these will become new fundamentals that can continue to propel ultimately demand for seaborne transportation of dry bulk commodities in the long run.
By Christopher Whitty,
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 01 May 20
LUKOIL SHARES LUBRICANT EXPERIENCE AFTER FIRST 100 DAYS OF OPERATION ON VLSFO
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
After 100 days of VLSFO operation, LUKOIL Marine Lubricants is sharing recent experience on VLSFO operation with NAVIGO M ...
Wednesday, 29 April 20
OIL CLOSES IN ON PEAK OVERSUPPLY - WOOD MACKENZIE
Are we now deep in the abyss? Up to our necks in it, if the oil price is any guide. Brent has now tested sub-US$20/bbl in this downturn and WTI sub ...
Monday, 27 April 20
INCIDENT INVESTIGATION: SEARCH FOR THE CAUSE, NOT THE VILLAIN - GARD
Incident investigations often conclude with placing the blame for an incident on the crew. Causes of the incidents are usually identified as proced ...
Monday, 27 April 20
A 58,000DWT VESSEL WAS FIXED DELIVERY SINGAPORE TRIP VIA INDONESIA, RE-DELIVERY WC INDIA, AT $4,500 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The tide turned this week for the Capesize market, as voyage rates registered dramatically falling fuel costs. This was led primarily ...
Sunday, 26 April 20
STRONGER BUNKER PRICES FAIL TO RALLY FREIGHT MARKET - FIS
VLSFO bunker prices rebounded by $22.50 to $229/mt in the port of Singapore but failed to turn around the spot freight market.
Some ...
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- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- The University of Queensland
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
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