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Wednesday, 22 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The unfolding last week of a trilateral defence pact between the United States, Australia, the United Kingdom (AUKUS) envisages a wide range of collaboration, but at its core is an agreement to start consultations to help Australia acquire a fleet of nuclear-propelled submarines. Believe AUKUS is an interesting development in the context of the already intensified geopolitical tensions between Australia and China, which have already led to a shift in trading patterns, particularly as far as dry bulk trade is concerned.
In particular, China’s ban on Australian coal since Q42020 has triggered inefficiencies in coal trading, with wide price arbitrages developing between China and the rest of the world for both metallurgical coal used by the steel industry and thermal coal used in power generation. The supply tightness has been more severe on metallurgical coal, the price of which has surged to record high levels, with China scrambling for supplies simulateneously with the rest of the world, steel production of which continues to grow. Australia is the world’s largest met coal exporter (approx. 59.0% of global seaborne met coal exports) and 2nd thermal coal exporter (approx. 22.0% of global seaborne thermal coal exports). China’s coking coal imports from Australia have come down to zero YTD 2021 vs a more than 50% share in imports during the previous two years. Imports from Mongolia so far have failed to meet increased demand amid COVID related supply disruptions and China had to increase its met coal imports share from Russia and the West (particularly the US and Canada), the last traditionally being primariy origins of imports for Europe. On the other hand, Australia coking coal is absorbed by steel mills outside China, as global steel production excl. the latter is up 16.0+% y-o-y (YTD Jan-Jul) and Australia coking coal has turned out cheaper than US coking coal despite the overall price surge. This trade shift has increased ton-miles and dry bulk fleet inefficiencies supporting Atlantic freight rates higher for longer.
In the meantime, China’s policy pledge for emissions cuts seems to be further supporting ton-miles for dry bulk, despite the country’s crude steel production declining y-o-y over the past two months and iron ore price collapsing below $100/ton recently from $230/ton in mid-July. We believe that in the short term, the severe coking coal and coke shortage in China as a result of the above policies is forcing crude steel production to adjust downwards earlier, but is incentivizing purchases of cheaper iron ore particularly from the Atlantic.
Till recently, demand for cargoes of crucial raw materials like iron ore and coal have overall jumped this year, outpacing active fleet growth, particularly if congestion is factored in, as economies recover from the pandemic. As new market dynamics develop and shape a new post pandemic landscape, we want to believe that these will become new fundamentals that can continue to propel ultimately demand for seaborne transportation of dry bulk commodities in the long run.
By Christopher Whitty,
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 24 April 20
CHINA COAL PRODUCER YANZHOU COAL POSTS 9.6 PCT RISE IN 2019 NET PROFIT - XINHUA
China’s major coal producer Yanzhou Coal Mining Co., Ltd. said Thursday that its net profit saw a 9.6 percent rise in 2019.
Th ...
Tuesday, 21 April 20
INDONESIA ACCOUNTS FOR 19% OF JAPAN'S TOTAL COAL IMPORTS - BANCHERO COSTA
Coal trade in Asia is proving remarkably resilient this year, despite the global economic impact from COVID-19.
We have seen China&r ...
Tuesday, 21 April 20
COVID-19: CHARTERPARTY MATTERS FOR SHIPOWNERS - SKULD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Whilst the plight of cruise ships, stranded off shore with sick passengers and crew, may be dominating media headlines, t ...
Monday, 20 April 20
SUPRAMAX: A 52,000DWT SHIP FIXING AN INDONESIA COAL RUN TO CHINA AT $4400 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
This week was the strongest period seen for the Capesize market in several months. All routes globally succumbed to improved sentiment ...
Friday, 17 April 20
PANDEMIC TO BRING ASIA'S 2020 GROWTH TO HALT FOR 1ST TIME IN 60 YEARS - IMF: REUTERS
Asia’s economic growth this year will grind to a halt for the first time in 60 years, as the coronavirus crisis takes an “unprecedented ...
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- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- The University of Queensland
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Australian Coal Association
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
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