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Wednesday, 22 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The unfolding last week of a trilateral defence pact between the United States, Australia, the United Kingdom (AUKUS) envisages a wide range of collaboration, but at its core is an agreement to start consultations to help Australia acquire a fleet of nuclear-propelled submarines. Believe AUKUS is an interesting development in the context of the already intensified geopolitical tensions between Australia and China, which have already led to a shift in trading patterns, particularly as far as dry bulk trade is concerned.
In particular, China’s ban on Australian coal since Q42020 has triggered inefficiencies in coal trading, with wide price arbitrages developing between China and the rest of the world for both metallurgical coal used by the steel industry and thermal coal used in power generation. The supply tightness has been more severe on metallurgical coal, the price of which has surged to record high levels, with China scrambling for supplies simulateneously with the rest of the world, steel production of which continues to grow. Australia is the world’s largest met coal exporter (approx. 59.0% of global seaborne met coal exports) and 2nd thermal coal exporter (approx. 22.0% of global seaborne thermal coal exports). China’s coking coal imports from Australia have come down to zero YTD 2021 vs a more than 50% share in imports during the previous two years. Imports from Mongolia so far have failed to meet increased demand amid COVID related supply disruptions and China had to increase its met coal imports share from Russia and the West (particularly the US and Canada), the last traditionally being primariy origins of imports for Europe. On the other hand, Australia coking coal is absorbed by steel mills outside China, as global steel production excl. the latter is up 16.0+% y-o-y (YTD Jan-Jul) and Australia coking coal has turned out cheaper than US coking coal despite the overall price surge. This trade shift has increased ton-miles and dry bulk fleet inefficiencies supporting Atlantic freight rates higher for longer.
In the meantime, China’s policy pledge for emissions cuts seems to be further supporting ton-miles for dry bulk, despite the country’s crude steel production declining y-o-y over the past two months and iron ore price collapsing below $100/ton recently from $230/ton in mid-July. We believe that in the short term, the severe coking coal and coke shortage in China as a result of the above policies is forcing crude steel production to adjust downwards earlier, but is incentivizing purchases of cheaper iron ore particularly from the Atlantic.
Till recently, demand for cargoes of crucial raw materials like iron ore and coal have overall jumped this year, outpacing active fleet growth, particularly if congestion is factored in, as economies recover from the pandemic. As new market dynamics develop and shape a new post pandemic landscape, we want to believe that these will become new fundamentals that can continue to propel ultimately demand for seaborne transportation of dry bulk commodities in the long run.
By Christopher Whitty,
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 17 April 20
OPEC BRACES FOR OIL MARKET'S "HISTORIC SHOCK"
OPEC released its much anticipated April monthly report.
Crude Oil Price Movements
Crude oil prices collapsed in March 2020, rec ...
Friday, 17 April 20
SAUDI ARABIA'S MAY 2020 OSPS FOR CRUDE EXPORTS BODE WELL FOR ASIAN REFINERS - WOOD MACKENZIE
On 13 April, Saudi Arabia announced the Official Selling Prices (OSPs) for its May crude oil exports. The new OSPs speak volumes about Saudi Arabia ...
Friday, 17 April 20
SEABORNE COAL PRICES UNDER PRESSURE AS DEMAND SOFTENS IN CHINA, INDIA - CLYDE RUSSELL
Worrying signs are emerging for coal exporters to the world’s biggest markets in Asia, as top buyers China and India move to favour domestic ...
Thursday, 16 April 20
THERMAL POWER SECTOR FACES BLEAK SCENARIO POST-COVID SITUATION - THE HINDU BUSINESS LINE
The centre should take a fresh look at coal-energy value chain as the sector tops the chart on loan defaults.
Covid-19 may have serv ...
Thursday, 16 April 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE FALLS 5 YUAN PER TONNE - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price fell by 5 yuan (about 70 U.S. cents) per tonne during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Co ...
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- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- The University of Queensland
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
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