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Wednesday, 22 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The unfolding last week of a trilateral defence pact between the United States, Australia, the United Kingdom (AUKUS) envisages a wide range of collaboration, but at its core is an agreement to start consultations to help Australia acquire a fleet of nuclear-propelled submarines. Believe AUKUS is an interesting development in the context of the already intensified geopolitical tensions between Australia and China, which have already led to a shift in trading patterns, particularly as far as dry bulk trade is concerned.
In particular, China’s ban on Australian coal since Q42020 has triggered inefficiencies in coal trading, with wide price arbitrages developing between China and the rest of the world for both metallurgical coal used by the steel industry and thermal coal used in power generation. The supply tightness has been more severe on metallurgical coal, the price of which has surged to record high levels, with China scrambling for supplies simulateneously with the rest of the world, steel production of which continues to grow. Australia is the world’s largest met coal exporter (approx. 59.0% of global seaborne met coal exports) and 2nd thermal coal exporter (approx. 22.0% of global seaborne thermal coal exports). China’s coking coal imports from Australia have come down to zero YTD 2021 vs a more than 50% share in imports during the previous two years. Imports from Mongolia so far have failed to meet increased demand amid COVID related supply disruptions and China had to increase its met coal imports share from Russia and the West (particularly the US and Canada), the last traditionally being primariy origins of imports for Europe. On the other hand, Australia coking coal is absorbed by steel mills outside China, as global steel production excl. the latter is up 16.0+% y-o-y (YTD Jan-Jul) and Australia coking coal has turned out cheaper than US coking coal despite the overall price surge. This trade shift has increased ton-miles and dry bulk fleet inefficiencies supporting Atlantic freight rates higher for longer.
In the meantime, China’s policy pledge for emissions cuts seems to be further supporting ton-miles for dry bulk, despite the country’s crude steel production declining y-o-y over the past two months and iron ore price collapsing below $100/ton recently from $230/ton in mid-July. We believe that in the short term, the severe coking coal and coke shortage in China as a result of the above policies is forcing crude steel production to adjust downwards earlier, but is incentivizing purchases of cheaper iron ore particularly from the Atlantic.
Till recently, demand for cargoes of crucial raw materials like iron ore and coal have overall jumped this year, outpacing active fleet growth, particularly if congestion is factored in, as economies recover from the pandemic. As new market dynamics develop and shape a new post pandemic landscape, we want to believe that these will become new fundamentals that can continue to propel ultimately demand for seaborne transportation of dry bulk commodities in the long run.
By Christopher Whitty,
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 09 April 20
SUSPENSION OF WRONGFUL TRADING IN LIGHT OF COVID 19 - WF&W
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
DIRECTORS’ PERSONAL LIABILITY FOR WRONGFUL TRADING – RELIEF DURING THE CORONAVIRUS CRISIS
As the UK&rsquo ...
Wednesday, 08 April 20
LESSONS LEARNED FROM SCRUBBER INSTALLATION AND OPERATION - ABS
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
At the beginning of this year, the IMO’s global sulfur cap on marine fuels entered into force and shipowners who ch ...
Wednesday, 08 April 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
With lockdown measures around the globe tightening during the last weeks of Q1, there is finally a feeling that most countries are slowly but stead ...
Tuesday, 07 April 20
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED
With the first quarter of 2020 now firmly written in the books, it is worth examining what we have witnessed so far in the tanker market. Undoubted ...
Tuesday, 07 April 20
IS CHINA EMBARKING ON A MAJOR EXPANSION OF COAL-FIRED POWER GENERATION? - WOOD MACKENZIE
As energy companies worldwide grapple with the economic impact of the coronavirus pandemic, long-term planning continues. Ahead of the release of t ...
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- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Planning Commission, India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- The University of Queensland
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
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