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Wednesday, 22 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The unfolding last week of a trilateral defence pact between the United States, Australia, the United Kingdom (AUKUS) envisages a wide range of collaboration, but at its core is an agreement to start consultations to help Australia acquire a fleet of nuclear-propelled submarines. Believe AUKUS is an interesting development in the context of the already intensified geopolitical tensions between Australia and China, which have already led to a shift in trading patterns, particularly as far as dry bulk trade is concerned.
In particular, China’s ban on Australian coal since Q42020 has triggered inefficiencies in coal trading, with wide price arbitrages developing between China and the rest of the world for both metallurgical coal used by the steel industry and thermal coal used in power generation. The supply tightness has been more severe on metallurgical coal, the price of which has surged to record high levels, with China scrambling for supplies simulateneously with the rest of the world, steel production of which continues to grow. Australia is the world’s largest met coal exporter (approx. 59.0% of global seaborne met coal exports) and 2nd thermal coal exporter (approx. 22.0% of global seaborne thermal coal exports). China’s coking coal imports from Australia have come down to zero YTD 2021 vs a more than 50% share in imports during the previous two years. Imports from Mongolia so far have failed to meet increased demand amid COVID related supply disruptions and China had to increase its met coal imports share from Russia and the West (particularly the US and Canada), the last traditionally being primariy origins of imports for Europe. On the other hand, Australia coking coal is absorbed by steel mills outside China, as global steel production excl. the latter is up 16.0+% y-o-y (YTD Jan-Jul) and Australia coking coal has turned out cheaper than US coking coal despite the overall price surge. This trade shift has increased ton-miles and dry bulk fleet inefficiencies supporting Atlantic freight rates higher for longer.
In the meantime, China’s policy pledge for emissions cuts seems to be further supporting ton-miles for dry bulk, despite the country’s crude steel production declining y-o-y over the past two months and iron ore price collapsing below $100/ton recently from $230/ton in mid-July. We believe that in the short term, the severe coking coal and coke shortage in China as a result of the above policies is forcing crude steel production to adjust downwards earlier, but is incentivizing purchases of cheaper iron ore particularly from the Atlantic.
Till recently, demand for cargoes of crucial raw materials like iron ore and coal have overall jumped this year, outpacing active fleet growth, particularly if congestion is factored in, as economies recover from the pandemic. As new market dynamics develop and shape a new post pandemic landscape, we want to believe that these will become new fundamentals that can continue to propel ultimately demand for seaborne transportation of dry bulk commodities in the long run.
By Christopher Whitty,
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Saturday, 25 April 20
KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER CO. INVITED BIDS FOR 780K - 900K MT OF 5600 NCV COAL FOR JULY TO OCTOBER 2020 LOADING
COALspot.com: South Korea’s KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER CO., LTD. (KOEN) has issued an international tender for 780,000~900,000 Metric Tons (MT) s ...
Saturday, 25 April 20
SEAFARER MENTAL WELLBEING DURING THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC - STANDARD CLUB
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
COVID-19 has forced many parts of the world to enforce a lockdown in a bid to flatten the curve in terms of transmissions ...
Friday, 24 April 20
KOMIPO INVITED BIDS FOR 5700 NAR COAL FOR JUNE & JULY LOADING
COALspot.com: South Korea’s Korea Midland Power Co. Ltd. (KOMIPO) Has Issued An International Tender For 260,000 Metric Tons (MT) Steam Coal ...
Friday, 24 April 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE REMAINS FLAT - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price remained flat during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
Friday, 24 April 20
COAL INDIA TO PRODUCE 710 MT COAL - MINISTER OF COAL AND MINES
Coal India Limited (CIL) will produce 710 million tonnes (MT) of coal and company’s coal off take target will also remain at710 MT for this f ...
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- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Minerals Council of Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
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