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Wednesday, 22 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The unfolding last week of a trilateral defence pact between the United States, Australia, the United Kingdom (AUKUS) envisages a wide range of collaboration, but at its core is an agreement to start consultations to help Australia acquire a fleet of nuclear-propelled submarines. Believe AUKUS is an interesting development in the context of the already intensified geopolitical tensions between Australia and China, which have already led to a shift in trading patterns, particularly as far as dry bulk trade is concerned.
In particular, China’s ban on Australian coal since Q42020 has triggered inefficiencies in coal trading, with wide price arbitrages developing between China and the rest of the world for both metallurgical coal used by the steel industry and thermal coal used in power generation. The supply tightness has been more severe on metallurgical coal, the price of which has surged to record high levels, with China scrambling for supplies simulateneously with the rest of the world, steel production of which continues to grow. Australia is the world’s largest met coal exporter (approx. 59.0% of global seaborne met coal exports) and 2nd thermal coal exporter (approx. 22.0% of global seaborne thermal coal exports). China’s coking coal imports from Australia have come down to zero YTD 2021 vs a more than 50% share in imports during the previous two years. Imports from Mongolia so far have failed to meet increased demand amid COVID related supply disruptions and China had to increase its met coal imports share from Russia and the West (particularly the US and Canada), the last traditionally being primariy origins of imports for Europe. On the other hand, Australia coking coal is absorbed by steel mills outside China, as global steel production excl. the latter is up 16.0+% y-o-y (YTD Jan-Jul) and Australia coking coal has turned out cheaper than US coking coal despite the overall price surge. This trade shift has increased ton-miles and dry bulk fleet inefficiencies supporting Atlantic freight rates higher for longer.
In the meantime, China’s policy pledge for emissions cuts seems to be further supporting ton-miles for dry bulk, despite the country’s crude steel production declining y-o-y over the past two months and iron ore price collapsing below $100/ton recently from $230/ton in mid-July. We believe that in the short term, the severe coking coal and coke shortage in China as a result of the above policies is forcing crude steel production to adjust downwards earlier, but is incentivizing purchases of cheaper iron ore particularly from the Atlantic.
Till recently, demand for cargoes of crucial raw materials like iron ore and coal have overall jumped this year, outpacing active fleet growth, particularly if congestion is factored in, as economies recover from the pandemic. As new market dynamics develop and shape a new post pandemic landscape, we want to believe that these will become new fundamentals that can continue to propel ultimately demand for seaborne transportation of dry bulk commodities in the long run.
By Christopher Whitty,
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 08 May 20
THE COLLAPSE OF THE OIL AND BUNKER FUEL MARKETS IN EARLY 2020 - PETER SAND
The sulphur regulation from the International Maritime Organization (IMO) that came into force on 1 January 2020 took the centre stage in the shipp ...
Friday, 08 May 20
LNG DEMAND FACED SEVERAL HEADWINDS IN THE FIRST QUARTER OF 2020 - GASLOG
LNG demand faced several headwinds in the first quarter of 2020 including a warmer than average winter in the northern hemisphere, high inventory l ...
Thursday, 07 May 20
IEEFA UPDATE: THE OUTLOOK FOR THERMAL COAL IN SOUTHEAST ASIA AND SOUTH ASIA
Seven headwinds are building to sustained growth in coal in Asia
The medium term outlook for thermal coal in Southeast Asia is posit ...
Thursday, 07 May 20
IMO 2020: BUNKER CLAIMS HANDLING GUIDE FOR A NEW DECADE - THE STANDARD CLUB
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
IMO 2020 is the term generally used to describe the following regulations under Annex VI of the International Convention ...
Thursday, 07 May 20
CRUDE OIL TANKER EARNINGS DROP 68% IN NINE DAYS - BIMCO
Crude oil tanker earnings have come down sharply in recent weeks with Very Large Crude Carrier (VLCC) earnings from the Middle East Gulf to China d ...
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- Australian Coal Association
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- The University of Queensland
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
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