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Wednesday, 22 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The unfolding last week of a trilateral defence pact between the United States, Australia, the United Kingdom (AUKUS) envisages a wide range of collaboration, but at its core is an agreement to start consultations to help Australia acquire a fleet of nuclear-propelled submarines. Believe AUKUS is an interesting development in the context of the already intensified geopolitical tensions between Australia and China, which have already led to a shift in trading patterns, particularly as far as dry bulk trade is concerned.
In particular, China’s ban on Australian coal since Q42020 has triggered inefficiencies in coal trading, with wide price arbitrages developing between China and the rest of the world for both metallurgical coal used by the steel industry and thermal coal used in power generation. The supply tightness has been more severe on metallurgical coal, the price of which has surged to record high levels, with China scrambling for supplies simulateneously with the rest of the world, steel production of which continues to grow. Australia is the world’s largest met coal exporter (approx. 59.0% of global seaborne met coal exports) and 2nd thermal coal exporter (approx. 22.0% of global seaborne thermal coal exports). China’s coking coal imports from Australia have come down to zero YTD 2021 vs a more than 50% share in imports during the previous two years. Imports from Mongolia so far have failed to meet increased demand amid COVID related supply disruptions and China had to increase its met coal imports share from Russia and the West (particularly the US and Canada), the last traditionally being primariy origins of imports for Europe. On the other hand, Australia coking coal is absorbed by steel mills outside China, as global steel production excl. the latter is up 16.0+% y-o-y (YTD Jan-Jul) and Australia coking coal has turned out cheaper than US coking coal despite the overall price surge. This trade shift has increased ton-miles and dry bulk fleet inefficiencies supporting Atlantic freight rates higher for longer.
In the meantime, China’s policy pledge for emissions cuts seems to be further supporting ton-miles for dry bulk, despite the country’s crude steel production declining y-o-y over the past two months and iron ore price collapsing below $100/ton recently from $230/ton in mid-July. We believe that in the short term, the severe coking coal and coke shortage in China as a result of the above policies is forcing crude steel production to adjust downwards earlier, but is incentivizing purchases of cheaper iron ore particularly from the Atlantic.
Till recently, demand for cargoes of crucial raw materials like iron ore and coal have overall jumped this year, outpacing active fleet growth, particularly if congestion is factored in, as economies recover from the pandemic. As new market dynamics develop and shape a new post pandemic landscape, we want to believe that these will become new fundamentals that can continue to propel ultimately demand for seaborne transportation of dry bulk commodities in the long run.
By Christopher Whitty,
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 18 May 20
THERMAL COAL SPOT PRICE TUMBLES 25 PER CENT, PUTTING PRESSURE ON SOME PRODUCERS - ABC RURAL
The spot price for thermal coal has fallen 25 per cent per cent in the past month with one leading analyst saying it is because of a reduction in d ...
Monday, 18 May 20
CHINA'S COAL OUTPUT UP 1.3 PCT IN JANUARY-APRIL: XINHUA
Output of raw coal in China rose 1.3 percent year on year to 1.15 billion tonnes in the first four months this year, official data showed.
&nbs ...
Sunday, 17 May 20
A 55,000 OPEN ILIGAN FIXING AT $6,500 VIA INDONESIA REDELIVERY INDIA - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A precipitous fall in the market this week had the Capesize 5TC shedding over 50 per cent in value. A small rebound at the end of the ...
Friday, 15 May 20
CHINA'S COAL CONSUMPTION TO FALL Y/Y IN SECOND QUARTER, IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED IN SECOND HALF - INDUSTRY BODY: REUTERS
China’s coal consumption is expected to decline in the second quarter from a year earlier, but will see an improvement in the second half of ...
Thursday, 14 May 20
OPEC REVISES DOWN GLOBAL OIL DEMAND FORECAST AGAIN
Crude Oil Price Movements
Crude oil prices recorded a second sharp monthly drop in April, amid an increasing oil surplus in the spot market. Th ...
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- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Australian Coal Association
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Planning Commission, India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- PTC India Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
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