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Wednesday, 22 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The unfolding last week of a trilateral defence pact between the United States, Australia, the United Kingdom (AUKUS) envisages a wide range of collaboration, but at its core is an agreement to start consultations to help Australia acquire a fleet of nuclear-propelled submarines. Believe AUKUS is an interesting development in the context of the already intensified geopolitical tensions between Australia and China, which have already led to a shift in trading patterns, particularly as far as dry bulk trade is concerned.
In particular, China’s ban on Australian coal since Q42020 has triggered inefficiencies in coal trading, with wide price arbitrages developing between China and the rest of the world for both metallurgical coal used by the steel industry and thermal coal used in power generation. The supply tightness has been more severe on metallurgical coal, the price of which has surged to record high levels, with China scrambling for supplies simulateneously with the rest of the world, steel production of which continues to grow. Australia is the world’s largest met coal exporter (approx. 59.0% of global seaborne met coal exports) and 2nd thermal coal exporter (approx. 22.0% of global seaborne thermal coal exports). China’s coking coal imports from Australia have come down to zero YTD 2021 vs a more than 50% share in imports during the previous two years. Imports from Mongolia so far have failed to meet increased demand amid COVID related supply disruptions and China had to increase its met coal imports share from Russia and the West (particularly the US and Canada), the last traditionally being primariy origins of imports for Europe. On the other hand, Australia coking coal is absorbed by steel mills outside China, as global steel production excl. the latter is up 16.0+% y-o-y (YTD Jan-Jul) and Australia coking coal has turned out cheaper than US coking coal despite the overall price surge. This trade shift has increased ton-miles and dry bulk fleet inefficiencies supporting Atlantic freight rates higher for longer.
In the meantime, China’s policy pledge for emissions cuts seems to be further supporting ton-miles for dry bulk, despite the country’s crude steel production declining y-o-y over the past two months and iron ore price collapsing below $100/ton recently from $230/ton in mid-July. We believe that in the short term, the severe coking coal and coke shortage in China as a result of the above policies is forcing crude steel production to adjust downwards earlier, but is incentivizing purchases of cheaper iron ore particularly from the Atlantic.
Till recently, demand for cargoes of crucial raw materials like iron ore and coal have overall jumped this year, outpacing active fleet growth, particularly if congestion is factored in, as economies recover from the pandemic. As new market dynamics develop and shape a new post pandemic landscape, we want to believe that these will become new fundamentals that can continue to propel ultimately demand for seaborne transportation of dry bulk commodities in the long run.
By Christopher Whitty,
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 25 May 20
NON-OPEC OIL SUPPLY DEVELOPMENT - OPEC
Non-OPEC oil supply continued to increase by 2.0 mb/d in 2019, driven by US shale production, which rose by 1.7 mb/d, amounting to 84% of total non ...
Sunday, 24 May 20
A 63,000 FIXED DELIVERY VIETNAM TRIP VIA INDONESIA REDELIVERY KOSICHANG AT $8,500 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
After a week of bounce momentum the market appears to have stalled out once again. The Capesize 5TC has more than doubled since last F ...
Saturday, 23 May 20
COLOMBIA COAL OUTPUT DOWN 7.2% IN Q1 ON LOW PRICES, CORONAVIRUS LOCKDOWN - REUTERS
Coal production in Colombia, the world’s fifth-largest coal exporter, fell 7.2% in the first quarter because of low prices and coronavirus qu ...
Saturday, 23 May 20
EWP INVITES BIDS FOR 840,000 METRIC TONS OF MIN 5700 NAR COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea’s Korea East-West Power Co. Ltd (EWP) has Issued an International Tender for total Max 840,000 Metric Tons of min 5 ...
Thursday, 21 May 20
KOMIPO INVITED BIDS FOR TOTAL 610000 MT OF LCV AND HCV COAL FOR 2H 2020
COALspot.com: South Korea’s Korea Midland Power Co. Ltd. (KOMIPO) has Issued an International Tender for 130,000 mt of 5700 NCV coal an ...
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- MS Steel International - UAE
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Australian Coal Association
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
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