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Wednesday, 22 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The unfolding last week of a trilateral defence pact between the United States, Australia, the United Kingdom (AUKUS) envisages a wide range of collaboration, but at its core is an agreement to start consultations to help Australia acquire a fleet of nuclear-propelled submarines. Believe AUKUS is an interesting development in the context of the already intensified geopolitical tensions between Australia and China, which have already led to a shift in trading patterns, particularly as far as dry bulk trade is concerned.
In particular, China’s ban on Australian coal since Q42020 has triggered inefficiencies in coal trading, with wide price arbitrages developing between China and the rest of the world for both metallurgical coal used by the steel industry and thermal coal used in power generation. The supply tightness has been more severe on metallurgical coal, the price of which has surged to record high levels, with China scrambling for supplies simulateneously with the rest of the world, steel production of which continues to grow. Australia is the world’s largest met coal exporter (approx. 59.0% of global seaborne met coal exports) and 2nd thermal coal exporter (approx. 22.0% of global seaborne thermal coal exports). China’s coking coal imports from Australia have come down to zero YTD 2021 vs a more than 50% share in imports during the previous two years. Imports from Mongolia so far have failed to meet increased demand amid COVID related supply disruptions and China had to increase its met coal imports share from Russia and the West (particularly the US and Canada), the last traditionally being primariy origins of imports for Europe. On the other hand, Australia coking coal is absorbed by steel mills outside China, as global steel production excl. the latter is up 16.0+% y-o-y (YTD Jan-Jul) and Australia coking coal has turned out cheaper than US coking coal despite the overall price surge. This trade shift has increased ton-miles and dry bulk fleet inefficiencies supporting Atlantic freight rates higher for longer.
In the meantime, China’s policy pledge for emissions cuts seems to be further supporting ton-miles for dry bulk, despite the country’s crude steel production declining y-o-y over the past two months and iron ore price collapsing below $100/ton recently from $230/ton in mid-July. We believe that in the short term, the severe coking coal and coke shortage in China as a result of the above policies is forcing crude steel production to adjust downwards earlier, but is incentivizing purchases of cheaper iron ore particularly from the Atlantic.
Till recently, demand for cargoes of crucial raw materials like iron ore and coal have overall jumped this year, outpacing active fleet growth, particularly if congestion is factored in, as economies recover from the pandemic. As new market dynamics develop and shape a new post pandemic landscape, we want to believe that these will become new fundamentals that can continue to propel ultimately demand for seaborne transportation of dry bulk commodities in the long run.
By Christopher Whitty,
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 01 June 20
SUPRAMAX: IN SOUTH EAST ASIA RATES TRADED SIDEWAYS - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A sober end to the week, with the market seemingly ready for the weekend. After a steady week of rate declines a small flurry of Atlan ...
Friday, 29 May 20
COVID-19: COAL SUPPLY BY CIL TO POWER SECTOR DIPS 22% TO 32 MT IN APRIL DUE TO DEMAND SLUMP - PTI
Over 95% of CIL’s production comes from its 171 open cast mines.
The supply of coal to the power sector by state-owned Coal In ...
Friday, 29 May 20
AUSTRALIA'S NEW HOPE WARNS OF HIT FROM COAL PRICE SLUMP - REUTERS
Australia’s New Hope Corp Ltd said on Thursday that a sudden drop in thermal coal prices and lower output from its Queensland operations woul ...
Friday, 29 May 20
GOVT MAY LAUNCH COAL BLOCKS AUCTION PROCESS UNDER COMMERCIAL MINING ON JUN 11 - PTI
The Centre is likely to launch the process of coal blocks auction under commercial mining on June 11 and around 50 mines are expected to go under t ...
Friday, 29 May 20
KOMIPO ON BEHALF FIVE KOREAN GENCOS INVITED COAL BIDS FOR 5,700 & 4999 NCV COAL FOR AUGUST 2020 LOADING
COALspot.com: South Korea’s Korea Midland Power Co.,Ltd (KOMIPO) on behalf five (5) Korean Gencos has Issued an International Tender for tota ...
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- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Planning Commission, India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Australian Coal Association
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- The University of Queensland
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
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