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Wednesday, 22 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The unfolding last week of a trilateral defence pact between the United States, Australia, the United Kingdom (AUKUS) envisages a wide range of collaboration, but at its core is an agreement to start consultations to help Australia acquire a fleet of nuclear-propelled submarines. Believe AUKUS is an interesting development in the context of the already intensified geopolitical tensions between Australia and China, which have already led to a shift in trading patterns, particularly as far as dry bulk trade is concerned.
In particular, China’s ban on Australian coal since Q42020 has triggered inefficiencies in coal trading, with wide price arbitrages developing between China and the rest of the world for both metallurgical coal used by the steel industry and thermal coal used in power generation. The supply tightness has been more severe on metallurgical coal, the price of which has surged to record high levels, with China scrambling for supplies simulateneously with the rest of the world, steel production of which continues to grow. Australia is the world’s largest met coal exporter (approx. 59.0% of global seaborne met coal exports) and 2nd thermal coal exporter (approx. 22.0% of global seaborne thermal coal exports). China’s coking coal imports from Australia have come down to zero YTD 2021 vs a more than 50% share in imports during the previous two years. Imports from Mongolia so far have failed to meet increased demand amid COVID related supply disruptions and China had to increase its met coal imports share from Russia and the West (particularly the US and Canada), the last traditionally being primariy origins of imports for Europe. On the other hand, Australia coking coal is absorbed by steel mills outside China, as global steel production excl. the latter is up 16.0+% y-o-y (YTD Jan-Jul) and Australia coking coal has turned out cheaper than US coking coal despite the overall price surge. This trade shift has increased ton-miles and dry bulk fleet inefficiencies supporting Atlantic freight rates higher for longer.
In the meantime, China’s policy pledge for emissions cuts seems to be further supporting ton-miles for dry bulk, despite the country’s crude steel production declining y-o-y over the past two months and iron ore price collapsing below $100/ton recently from $230/ton in mid-July. We believe that in the short term, the severe coking coal and coke shortage in China as a result of the above policies is forcing crude steel production to adjust downwards earlier, but is incentivizing purchases of cheaper iron ore particularly from the Atlantic.
Till recently, demand for cargoes of crucial raw materials like iron ore and coal have overall jumped this year, outpacing active fleet growth, particularly if congestion is factored in, as economies recover from the pandemic. As new market dynamics develop and shape a new post pandemic landscape, we want to believe that these will become new fundamentals that can continue to propel ultimately demand for seaborne transportation of dry bulk commodities in the long run.
By Christopher Whitty,
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 04 June 20
DON'T FORGET THE REAL PURPOSE OF RISK ASSESSMENTS - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
When doing a risk assessment, we often overcomplicate it and forget its real purpose.
Rather than ensuring that crew ...
Wednesday, 03 June 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Once again shipping is about to venture into uncharted waters and before the challenges of the past decade are forgotten, shipowners will have to o ...
Tuesday, 02 June 20
KOSPO LOOKING FOR 80000 MT OF 4200 NCV COAL FOR JULY
COALspot.com: Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO) has issued an International tender for 80,000 Metric Tons (MT) 4200 NCV coal for 12 - 21, July ...
Tuesday, 02 June 20
INDONESIAN COAL MINER BUMI RESOURCES Q1 OUTPUT UP 5% - REUTERS
Indonesia’s largest coal miner Bumi Resources posted a 5% increase in first-quarter output at 20.8 million tonnes, the company said in a stat ...
Tuesday, 02 June 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX DOWN 0.86 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 123.95 points Monday, down 0.86 percent week on week.
The index, released by Chi ...
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- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Planning Commission, India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- White Energy Company Limited
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
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