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Wednesday, 22 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The unfolding last week of a trilateral defence pact between the United States, Australia, the United Kingdom (AUKUS) envisages a wide range of collaboration, but at its core is an agreement to start consultations to help Australia acquire a fleet of nuclear-propelled submarines. Believe AUKUS is an interesting development in the context of the already intensified geopolitical tensions between Australia and China, which have already led to a shift in trading patterns, particularly as far as dry bulk trade is concerned.
In particular, China’s ban on Australian coal since Q42020 has triggered inefficiencies in coal trading, with wide price arbitrages developing between China and the rest of the world for both metallurgical coal used by the steel industry and thermal coal used in power generation. The supply tightness has been more severe on metallurgical coal, the price of which has surged to record high levels, with China scrambling for supplies simulateneously with the rest of the world, steel production of which continues to grow. Australia is the world’s largest met coal exporter (approx. 59.0% of global seaborne met coal exports) and 2nd thermal coal exporter (approx. 22.0% of global seaborne thermal coal exports). China’s coking coal imports from Australia have come down to zero YTD 2021 vs a more than 50% share in imports during the previous two years. Imports from Mongolia so far have failed to meet increased demand amid COVID related supply disruptions and China had to increase its met coal imports share from Russia and the West (particularly the US and Canada), the last traditionally being primariy origins of imports for Europe. On the other hand, Australia coking coal is absorbed by steel mills outside China, as global steel production excl. the latter is up 16.0+% y-o-y (YTD Jan-Jul) and Australia coking coal has turned out cheaper than US coking coal despite the overall price surge. This trade shift has increased ton-miles and dry bulk fleet inefficiencies supporting Atlantic freight rates higher for longer.
In the meantime, China’s policy pledge for emissions cuts seems to be further supporting ton-miles for dry bulk, despite the country’s crude steel production declining y-o-y over the past two months and iron ore price collapsing below $100/ton recently from $230/ton in mid-July. We believe that in the short term, the severe coking coal and coke shortage in China as a result of the above policies is forcing crude steel production to adjust downwards earlier, but is incentivizing purchases of cheaper iron ore particularly from the Atlantic.
Till recently, demand for cargoes of crucial raw materials like iron ore and coal have overall jumped this year, outpacing active fleet growth, particularly if congestion is factored in, as economies recover from the pandemic. As new market dynamics develop and shape a new post pandemic landscape, we want to believe that these will become new fundamentals that can continue to propel ultimately demand for seaborne transportation of dry bulk commodities in the long run.
By Christopher Whitty,
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 15 July 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The Covid-19 virus spread around the world has obviously impacted the global oil demand while the situation remains fluid. The overall constraint ...
Tuesday, 14 July 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX UP 0.75 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 126.01 points Monday, up 0.75 percent week on week.
The index, released by China ...
Tuesday, 14 July 20
TURKEY - A CASE OF UNDECLARED BUNKER - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Undeclared/excess bunkers can be considered a criminal act by Turkish customs officials with the ship's crew being ac ...
Monday, 13 July 20
PANAMAX: A TUMULTUOUS WEEK IN THE PANAMAX MARKET ENSURED ALL MARKETS GAINED VALUE ON THE WEEK - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
This week witnessed the dreaded correction in the Capesize market, with the time charter average shedding almost 18 per cent to close ...
Friday, 10 July 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE EDGES UP - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price rose slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
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- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Australian Coal Association
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- The University of Queensland
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Planning Commission, India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- PTC India Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
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