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Wednesday, 22 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The unfolding last week of a trilateral defence pact between the United States, Australia, the United Kingdom (AUKUS) envisages a wide range of collaboration, but at its core is an agreement to start consultations to help Australia acquire a fleet of nuclear-propelled submarines. Believe AUKUS is an interesting development in the context of the already intensified geopolitical tensions between Australia and China, which have already led to a shift in trading patterns, particularly as far as dry bulk trade is concerned.
In particular, China’s ban on Australian coal since Q42020 has triggered inefficiencies in coal trading, with wide price arbitrages developing between China and the rest of the world for both metallurgical coal used by the steel industry and thermal coal used in power generation. The supply tightness has been more severe on metallurgical coal, the price of which has surged to record high levels, with China scrambling for supplies simulateneously with the rest of the world, steel production of which continues to grow. Australia is the world’s largest met coal exporter (approx. 59.0% of global seaborne met coal exports) and 2nd thermal coal exporter (approx. 22.0% of global seaborne thermal coal exports). China’s coking coal imports from Australia have come down to zero YTD 2021 vs a more than 50% share in imports during the previous two years. Imports from Mongolia so far have failed to meet increased demand amid COVID related supply disruptions and China had to increase its met coal imports share from Russia and the West (particularly the US and Canada), the last traditionally being primariy origins of imports for Europe. On the other hand, Australia coking coal is absorbed by steel mills outside China, as global steel production excl. the latter is up 16.0+% y-o-y (YTD Jan-Jul) and Australia coking coal has turned out cheaper than US coking coal despite the overall price surge. This trade shift has increased ton-miles and dry bulk fleet inefficiencies supporting Atlantic freight rates higher for longer.
In the meantime, China’s policy pledge for emissions cuts seems to be further supporting ton-miles for dry bulk, despite the country’s crude steel production declining y-o-y over the past two months and iron ore price collapsing below $100/ton recently from $230/ton in mid-July. We believe that in the short term, the severe coking coal and coke shortage in China as a result of the above policies is forcing crude steel production to adjust downwards earlier, but is incentivizing purchases of cheaper iron ore particularly from the Atlantic.
Till recently, demand for cargoes of crucial raw materials like iron ore and coal have overall jumped this year, outpacing active fleet growth, particularly if congestion is factored in, as economies recover from the pandemic. As new market dynamics develop and shape a new post pandemic landscape, we want to believe that these will become new fundamentals that can continue to propel ultimately demand for seaborne transportation of dry bulk commodities in the long run.
By Christopher Whitty,
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 29 July 20
2019 U.S. COAL PRODUCTION FALLS TO ITS LOWEST LEVEL SINCE 1978 - EIA
In 2019, U.S. coal production totaled 706 million short tons (MMst), a 7% decrease from the 756 MMst mined in 2018. Last year’s production wa ...
Wednesday, 29 July 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The dry bulk sector is beginning to recover from reduced SnP activity recorded in the first quarter of 2020. The table below illustrates that appro ...
Tuesday, 28 July 20
DEUTSCHE BANK TO END GLOBAL BUSINESS ACTIVITIES IN COAL MINING BY 2025 - REUTERS
Deutsche Bank, in a revamp of its policies for fossil fuels, said on Monday that it would end business activities worldwide related to coal mining ...
Monday, 27 July 20
IEEFA ENERGY FINANCE CONFERENCE 2020: COAL, LNG, PETROCHEMICAL SECTORS FACE POOR OUTLOOK AND UPHILL BATTLE FOR INVESTORS
Fossil fuel industries were becoming less financially attractive even before the global coronavirus pandemic
Three major fossil fuel ...
Friday, 24 July 20
IPA: THERMAL COAL IMPORTS AT MAJOR PORTS DECLINE 35 PC TO 17.71 MT IN APR TO JUNE - ECONOMIC TIMES
These ports had handled 27.13 MT of thermal coal and 14.95 MT of coking coal in the April-June period of the previous financial year
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- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Australian Coal Association
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- The University of Queensland
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- White Energy Company Limited
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
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