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Wednesday, 22 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The unfolding last week of a trilateral defence pact between the United States, Australia, the United Kingdom (AUKUS) envisages a wide range of collaboration, but at its core is an agreement to start consultations to help Australia acquire a fleet of nuclear-propelled submarines. Believe AUKUS is an interesting development in the context of the already intensified geopolitical tensions between Australia and China, which have already led to a shift in trading patterns, particularly as far as dry bulk trade is concerned.
In particular, China’s ban on Australian coal since Q42020 has triggered inefficiencies in coal trading, with wide price arbitrages developing between China and the rest of the world for both metallurgical coal used by the steel industry and thermal coal used in power generation. The supply tightness has been more severe on metallurgical coal, the price of which has surged to record high levels, with China scrambling for supplies simulateneously with the rest of the world, steel production of which continues to grow. Australia is the world’s largest met coal exporter (approx. 59.0% of global seaborne met coal exports) and 2nd thermal coal exporter (approx. 22.0% of global seaborne thermal coal exports). China’s coking coal imports from Australia have come down to zero YTD 2021 vs a more than 50% share in imports during the previous two years. Imports from Mongolia so far have failed to meet increased demand amid COVID related supply disruptions and China had to increase its met coal imports share from Russia and the West (particularly the US and Canada), the last traditionally being primariy origins of imports for Europe. On the other hand, Australia coking coal is absorbed by steel mills outside China, as global steel production excl. the latter is up 16.0+% y-o-y (YTD Jan-Jul) and Australia coking coal has turned out cheaper than US coking coal despite the overall price surge. This trade shift has increased ton-miles and dry bulk fleet inefficiencies supporting Atlantic freight rates higher for longer.
In the meantime, China’s policy pledge for emissions cuts seems to be further supporting ton-miles for dry bulk, despite the country’s crude steel production declining y-o-y over the past two months and iron ore price collapsing below $100/ton recently from $230/ton in mid-July. We believe that in the short term, the severe coking coal and coke shortage in China as a result of the above policies is forcing crude steel production to adjust downwards earlier, but is incentivizing purchases of cheaper iron ore particularly from the Atlantic.
Till recently, demand for cargoes of crucial raw materials like iron ore and coal have overall jumped this year, outpacing active fleet growth, particularly if congestion is factored in, as economies recover from the pandemic. As new market dynamics develop and shape a new post pandemic landscape, we want to believe that these will become new fundamentals that can continue to propel ultimately demand for seaborne transportation of dry bulk commodities in the long run.
By Christopher Whitty,
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 06 August 20
SUPRAMAX MARKET CONTINUED SIDEWAYS TREND, AND LITTLE INSPIRING NEWS APPEAR - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
There is presently a small correction in rates, but overall levels are up from previous week mainly due to increased demand in the Eas ...
Thursday, 06 August 20
KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER INVITING BIDS FOR MIN 3,600-MAX 3,800 NCV COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea’s KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER CO., LTD. (KOEN) inviting bids for 80,000 Tons (MT) Min 3,600~Max 3,800 kcal/kg NCV coal f ...
Wednesday, 05 August 20
NO NEW MINING LICENSES - A REMINDER TO GOVERNORS IN INDONESIA - SSEK
Indonesia’s acting Director General of Mining and Coal (“DGMC”) has issued a letter to the country’s provincial Governors t ...
Wednesday, 05 August 20
AUGUST 2020 HBA HITTING ITS LOWEST LEVELS IN HISTORY
COALspot.com: The Indonesia Coal Price Reference for the month of August plunged 30.73% YoY, hitting its lowest levels in history and highlighting ...
Wednesday, 05 August 20
SLUMP IN OIL REVENUE CHALLENGES MIDDLE EAST OIL EXPORTERS - INTERMODAL
The Covid-19 pandemic has had far-reaching consequences on the global capital markets. Despite the US government’s efforts for a quick and de ...
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- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- White Energy Company Limited
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Australian Coal Association
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
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