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Wednesday, 22 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The unfolding last week of a trilateral defence pact between the United States, Australia, the United Kingdom (AUKUS) envisages a wide range of collaboration, but at its core is an agreement to start consultations to help Australia acquire a fleet of nuclear-propelled submarines. Believe AUKUS is an interesting development in the context of the already intensified geopolitical tensions between Australia and China, which have already led to a shift in trading patterns, particularly as far as dry bulk trade is concerned.
In particular, China’s ban on Australian coal since Q42020 has triggered inefficiencies in coal trading, with wide price arbitrages developing between China and the rest of the world for both metallurgical coal used by the steel industry and thermal coal used in power generation. The supply tightness has been more severe on metallurgical coal, the price of which has surged to record high levels, with China scrambling for supplies simulateneously with the rest of the world, steel production of which continues to grow. Australia is the world’s largest met coal exporter (approx. 59.0% of global seaborne met coal exports) and 2nd thermal coal exporter (approx. 22.0% of global seaborne thermal coal exports). China’s coking coal imports from Australia have come down to zero YTD 2021 vs a more than 50% share in imports during the previous two years. Imports from Mongolia so far have failed to meet increased demand amid COVID related supply disruptions and China had to increase its met coal imports share from Russia and the West (particularly the US and Canada), the last traditionally being primariy origins of imports for Europe. On the other hand, Australia coking coal is absorbed by steel mills outside China, as global steel production excl. the latter is up 16.0+% y-o-y (YTD Jan-Jul) and Australia coking coal has turned out cheaper than US coking coal despite the overall price surge. This trade shift has increased ton-miles and dry bulk fleet inefficiencies supporting Atlantic freight rates higher for longer.
In the meantime, China’s policy pledge for emissions cuts seems to be further supporting ton-miles for dry bulk, despite the country’s crude steel production declining y-o-y over the past two months and iron ore price collapsing below $100/ton recently from $230/ton in mid-July. We believe that in the short term, the severe coking coal and coke shortage in China as a result of the above policies is forcing crude steel production to adjust downwards earlier, but is incentivizing purchases of cheaper iron ore particularly from the Atlantic.
Till recently, demand for cargoes of crucial raw materials like iron ore and coal have overall jumped this year, outpacing active fleet growth, particularly if congestion is factored in, as economies recover from the pandemic. As new market dynamics develop and shape a new post pandemic landscape, we want to believe that these will become new fundamentals that can continue to propel ultimately demand for seaborne transportation of dry bulk commodities in the long run.
By Christopher Whitty,
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 26 August 20
ASIAN COAL PRICES LIKELY TO REMAIN DEPRESSED SAY TRADERS, ANALYSTS - REUTERS
Asian coal prices, which have fallen around 25% this year as power demand slumped due to the coronavirus outbreak, are unlikely to move higher befo ...
Wednesday, 26 August 20
WORLD COAL EXPORTS: INDONESIAN THERMAL COAL EXPORTS HAVE COME UNDER PRESSURE AS THERMAL COAL PRICES WEAKEN - REPORT
Indonesia’s exports to decline sharply from record highs
Indonesia is the world’s largest thermal coal exporter, sellin ...
Wednesday, 26 August 20
JAPAN'S COAL IMPORTS ARE BEING AFFECTED BY COMPETING INFLUENCES - REPORT
Japan is the world’s third largest thermal coal importer, importing an estimated 135 million tonnes of thermal coal in 2019. The country&rsqu ...
Wednesday, 26 August 20
PENDING SOUTH KOREA LEGISLATION COULD FORCE HALT TO COUNTRY’S COAL PLANT EXPORT DEALS - KOREA ECONOMIC DAILY
South Korea’s parliament looks set to pass new legislation to ban financing on foreign coal power projects, putting all overseas coal-fired p ...
Tuesday, 25 August 20
INDIA'S IMPORTS FALL AS LOCKDOWNS IMPACT THE POWER AND INDUSTRIAL SECTORS - REPORT
India is the world’s second largest thermal coal consumer and importer, importing an estimated 211 million tonnes of thermal coal in 2019.&nb ...
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- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- The University of Queensland
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Planning Commission, India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
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