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Wednesday, 22 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The unfolding last week of a trilateral defence pact between the United States, Australia, the United Kingdom (AUKUS) envisages a wide range of collaboration, but at its core is an agreement to start consultations to help Australia acquire a fleet of nuclear-propelled submarines. Believe AUKUS is an interesting development in the context of the already intensified geopolitical tensions between Australia and China, which have already led to a shift in trading patterns, particularly as far as dry bulk trade is concerned.
In particular, China’s ban on Australian coal since Q42020 has triggered inefficiencies in coal trading, with wide price arbitrages developing between China and the rest of the world for both metallurgical coal used by the steel industry and thermal coal used in power generation. The supply tightness has been more severe on metallurgical coal, the price of which has surged to record high levels, with China scrambling for supplies simulateneously with the rest of the world, steel production of which continues to grow. Australia is the world’s largest met coal exporter (approx. 59.0% of global seaborne met coal exports) and 2nd thermal coal exporter (approx. 22.0% of global seaborne thermal coal exports). China’s coking coal imports from Australia have come down to zero YTD 2021 vs a more than 50% share in imports during the previous two years. Imports from Mongolia so far have failed to meet increased demand amid COVID related supply disruptions and China had to increase its met coal imports share from Russia and the West (particularly the US and Canada), the last traditionally being primariy origins of imports for Europe. On the other hand, Australia coking coal is absorbed by steel mills outside China, as global steel production excl. the latter is up 16.0+% y-o-y (YTD Jan-Jul) and Australia coking coal has turned out cheaper than US coking coal despite the overall price surge. This trade shift has increased ton-miles and dry bulk fleet inefficiencies supporting Atlantic freight rates higher for longer.
In the meantime, China’s policy pledge for emissions cuts seems to be further supporting ton-miles for dry bulk, despite the country’s crude steel production declining y-o-y over the past two months and iron ore price collapsing below $100/ton recently from $230/ton in mid-July. We believe that in the short term, the severe coking coal and coke shortage in China as a result of the above policies is forcing crude steel production to adjust downwards earlier, but is incentivizing purchases of cheaper iron ore particularly from the Atlantic.
Till recently, demand for cargoes of crucial raw materials like iron ore and coal have overall jumped this year, outpacing active fleet growth, particularly if congestion is factored in, as economies recover from the pandemic. As new market dynamics develop and shape a new post pandemic landscape, we want to believe that these will become new fundamentals that can continue to propel ultimately demand for seaborne transportation of dry bulk commodities in the long run.
By Christopher Whitty,
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 29 September 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX UP 0.73 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 125.91 points Monday, up 0.73 percent week on week.
The index, released by China ...
Tuesday, 29 September 20
SHIPPING MARKET - ALLIED
Here we are, just a short breath before the final quarter of the year, and many are now debating to what extent we can really expect a firm dry bul ...
Tuesday, 29 September 20
INDONESIAN COAL COMPANIES' EARNINGS TO WEAKEN IN 2H20 - FITCH RATINGS
Rated Indonesian coal miners and contractors will have weaker operating and financial performances in the second half of 2020 than in the first, sa ...
Tuesday, 29 September 20
RUSSIA'S COAL PRODUCTION TO DROP BY 10.5% IN 2020, SAYS MINISTRY - TASS
Russia’s Economic Development Ministry projects a 10.5% decrease in coal production in the country in 2020 compared with last year to 395 mln ...
Monday, 28 September 20
NEW LNG PROJECTS - ALL DRESSED UP AND NO PLACE TO GO - WOOD MACKENZIE
It was meant to be another boom year. After a record 70 mmtpa of new LNG capacity was sanctioned in 2019, at least as much capacity was lined up fo ...
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- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Economic Council, Georgia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
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