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Wednesday, 22 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The unfolding last week of a trilateral defence pact between the United States, Australia, the United Kingdom (AUKUS) envisages a wide range of collaboration, but at its core is an agreement to start consultations to help Australia acquire a fleet of nuclear-propelled submarines. Believe AUKUS is an interesting development in the context of the already intensified geopolitical tensions between Australia and China, which have already led to a shift in trading patterns, particularly as far as dry bulk trade is concerned.
In particular, China’s ban on Australian coal since Q42020 has triggered inefficiencies in coal trading, with wide price arbitrages developing between China and the rest of the world for both metallurgical coal used by the steel industry and thermal coal used in power generation. The supply tightness has been more severe on metallurgical coal, the price of which has surged to record high levels, with China scrambling for supplies simulateneously with the rest of the world, steel production of which continues to grow. Australia is the world’s largest met coal exporter (approx. 59.0% of global seaborne met coal exports) and 2nd thermal coal exporter (approx. 22.0% of global seaborne thermal coal exports). China’s coking coal imports from Australia have come down to zero YTD 2021 vs a more than 50% share in imports during the previous two years. Imports from Mongolia so far have failed to meet increased demand amid COVID related supply disruptions and China had to increase its met coal imports share from Russia and the West (particularly the US and Canada), the last traditionally being primariy origins of imports for Europe. On the other hand, Australia coking coal is absorbed by steel mills outside China, as global steel production excl. the latter is up 16.0+% y-o-y (YTD Jan-Jul) and Australia coking coal has turned out cheaper than US coking coal despite the overall price surge. This trade shift has increased ton-miles and dry bulk fleet inefficiencies supporting Atlantic freight rates higher for longer.
In the meantime, China’s policy pledge for emissions cuts seems to be further supporting ton-miles for dry bulk, despite the country’s crude steel production declining y-o-y over the past two months and iron ore price collapsing below $100/ton recently from $230/ton in mid-July. We believe that in the short term, the severe coking coal and coke shortage in China as a result of the above policies is forcing crude steel production to adjust downwards earlier, but is incentivizing purchases of cheaper iron ore particularly from the Atlantic.
Till recently, demand for cargoes of crucial raw materials like iron ore and coal have overall jumped this year, outpacing active fleet growth, particularly if congestion is factored in, as economies recover from the pandemic. As new market dynamics develop and shape a new post pandemic landscape, we want to believe that these will become new fundamentals that can continue to propel ultimately demand for seaborne transportation of dry bulk commodities in the long run.
By Christopher Whitty,
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Sunday, 01 November 20
GRADUAL RECOVERY FOR INDONESIAN COAL FROM 4Q20; RISKS REMAIN - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings expects the credit metrics of Indonesian coal miners and coal contractors to improve from 4Q20 with the recovery in volumes and price ...
Wednesday, 28 October 20
BIODIESEL - NEW FUELS, NEW CHALLENGES - GARD | DNV GL
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
One of numerous possible ways to comply with the IMO’s strategy on the reduction of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions ...
Wednesday, 28 October 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX UP 0.35 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 127.94 points Monday, up 0.35 percent week on week.
The index, released by China ...
Wednesday, 28 October 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The global strive towards eco-friendliness and environmental sustainability in the shipping industry is mounting. There are currently almost 200 co ...
Tuesday, 27 October 20
PLN STILL REFUSING TO ADAPT, A MOVE WHICH WILL HURT INVESTORS, CONSUMERS, AND THE GOVERNMENT PURSE - IEEFA
Utility’s latest planning report locks PLN into the past
PLN would be better served restructuring its business to address the current en ...
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- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- The University of Queensland
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Planning Commission, India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
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