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Wednesday, 22 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The unfolding last week of a trilateral defence pact between the United States, Australia, the United Kingdom (AUKUS) envisages a wide range of collaboration, but at its core is an agreement to start consultations to help Australia acquire a fleet of nuclear-propelled submarines. Believe AUKUS is an interesting development in the context of the already intensified geopolitical tensions between Australia and China, which have already led to a shift in trading patterns, particularly as far as dry bulk trade is concerned.
In particular, China’s ban on Australian coal since Q42020 has triggered inefficiencies in coal trading, with wide price arbitrages developing between China and the rest of the world for both metallurgical coal used by the steel industry and thermal coal used in power generation. The supply tightness has been more severe on metallurgical coal, the price of which has surged to record high levels, with China scrambling for supplies simulateneously with the rest of the world, steel production of which continues to grow. Australia is the world’s largest met coal exporter (approx. 59.0% of global seaborne met coal exports) and 2nd thermal coal exporter (approx. 22.0% of global seaborne thermal coal exports). China’s coking coal imports from Australia have come down to zero YTD 2021 vs a more than 50% share in imports during the previous two years. Imports from Mongolia so far have failed to meet increased demand amid COVID related supply disruptions and China had to increase its met coal imports share from Russia and the West (particularly the US and Canada), the last traditionally being primariy origins of imports for Europe. On the other hand, Australia coking coal is absorbed by steel mills outside China, as global steel production excl. the latter is up 16.0+% y-o-y (YTD Jan-Jul) and Australia coking coal has turned out cheaper than US coking coal despite the overall price surge. This trade shift has increased ton-miles and dry bulk fleet inefficiencies supporting Atlantic freight rates higher for longer.
In the meantime, China’s policy pledge for emissions cuts seems to be further supporting ton-miles for dry bulk, despite the country’s crude steel production declining y-o-y over the past two months and iron ore price collapsing below $100/ton recently from $230/ton in mid-July. We believe that in the short term, the severe coking coal and coke shortage in China as a result of the above policies is forcing crude steel production to adjust downwards earlier, but is incentivizing purchases of cheaper iron ore particularly from the Atlantic.
Till recently, demand for cargoes of crucial raw materials like iron ore and coal have overall jumped this year, outpacing active fleet growth, particularly if congestion is factored in, as economies recover from the pandemic. As new market dynamics develop and shape a new post pandemic landscape, we want to believe that these will become new fundamentals that can continue to propel ultimately demand for seaborne transportation of dry bulk commodities in the long run.
By Christopher Whitty,
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 08 December 20
PANAMAX: THE OVERALL MARKET SEEMS TO BE UNDER NEGATIVE PRESSURE - ALLIED
Capesize
A rather indifferent week for the Capesize market, with BCI 5TC figure finishing the week with slight losses of 0.8%. The Atlantic enj ...
Friday, 04 December 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE EDGES UP - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price rose slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
Friday, 04 December 20
THE INDONESIA COAL PRICE REFERENCE REACHES THREE MONTH HIGH ON IMPROVING DEMAND OUTLOOK
COALspot.com: The Indonesia Coal Price Reference reaches three month high on improving demand outlook . The Indonesia Coal Price Reference rose by& ...
Wednesday, 02 December 20
GLOBAL MINING SECTOR OUTLOOK STABLE DUE TO CHINA'S RECOVERY - FITCH RATINGS
China’s post-pandemic economic recovery and sizeable infrastructure-focused government stimulus boosted global metals and mining prices, help ...
Wednesday, 02 December 20
INDONESIA CONSIDERING CLOSING 3,400MW SURALAYA COAL PLANT - THE JAKARTA POST
The government is considering to shut down the aging Suralaya coal-fired power plant (PLTU) in Cilegon, Banten, and replace it with green energy, a ...
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- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- MS Steel International - UAE
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