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Wednesday, 22 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The unfolding last week of a trilateral defence pact between the United States, Australia, the United Kingdom (AUKUS) envisages a wide range of collaboration, but at its core is an agreement to start consultations to help Australia acquire a fleet of nuclear-propelled submarines. Believe AUKUS is an interesting development in the context of the already intensified geopolitical tensions between Australia and China, which have already led to a shift in trading patterns, particularly as far as dry bulk trade is concerned.
In particular, China’s ban on Australian coal since Q42020 has triggered inefficiencies in coal trading, with wide price arbitrages developing between China and the rest of the world for both metallurgical coal used by the steel industry and thermal coal used in power generation. The supply tightness has been more severe on metallurgical coal, the price of which has surged to record high levels, with China scrambling for supplies simulateneously with the rest of the world, steel production of which continues to grow. Australia is the world’s largest met coal exporter (approx. 59.0% of global seaborne met coal exports) and 2nd thermal coal exporter (approx. 22.0% of global seaborne thermal coal exports). China’s coking coal imports from Australia have come down to zero YTD 2021 vs a more than 50% share in imports during the previous two years. Imports from Mongolia so far have failed to meet increased demand amid COVID related supply disruptions and China had to increase its met coal imports share from Russia and the West (particularly the US and Canada), the last traditionally being primariy origins of imports for Europe. On the other hand, Australia coking coal is absorbed by steel mills outside China, as global steel production excl. the latter is up 16.0+% y-o-y (YTD Jan-Jul) and Australia coking coal has turned out cheaper than US coking coal despite the overall price surge. This trade shift has increased ton-miles and dry bulk fleet inefficiencies supporting Atlantic freight rates higher for longer.
In the meantime, China’s policy pledge for emissions cuts seems to be further supporting ton-miles for dry bulk, despite the country’s crude steel production declining y-o-y over the past two months and iron ore price collapsing below $100/ton recently from $230/ton in mid-July. We believe that in the short term, the severe coking coal and coke shortage in China as a result of the above policies is forcing crude steel production to adjust downwards earlier, but is incentivizing purchases of cheaper iron ore particularly from the Atlantic.
Till recently, demand for cargoes of crucial raw materials like iron ore and coal have overall jumped this year, outpacing active fleet growth, particularly if congestion is factored in, as economies recover from the pandemic. As new market dynamics develop and shape a new post pandemic landscape, we want to believe that these will become new fundamentals that can continue to propel ultimately demand for seaborne transportation of dry bulk commodities in the long run.
By Christopher Whitty,
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 21 December 20
A REBOUND IN GLOBAL COAL DEMAND IN 2021 IS SET TO BE SHORT-LIVED, BUT NO IMMEDIATE DECLINE IN SIGHT - IEA
After a major drop in recent years, global coal demand is forecast to rise by 2.6% in 2021 before flattening out to 2025
A global ec ...
Friday, 18 December 20
AUSTRALIA PM WARNS OF ‘LOSE-LOSE’ IN ANY CHINA COAL SHIFT - REUTERS
Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison said any shift by China away from importing high quality Australian coal would be a “lose-lose&rdquo ...
Friday, 18 December 20
BIG OIL AND COAL EXPORTERS FACE RECKONING AS PARIS AGREEMENT TURNS FIVE - CNA
On Dec 12, more than 70 global leaders came together at the UN’s Climate Ambition Summit, marking the fifth anniversary of the Paris Agreemen ...
Friday, 18 December 20
SOUTH AFRICAN COAL EXPORTERS LARGELY DEPENDENT ON THE ASIAN MARKETS - BANCHERO COSTA
South Africa is the fourth largest exporter of coal in the world, after Australia, Indonesia and Russia. In calendar 2019 the country exported a to ...
Thursday, 17 December 20
CHINA'S BAN IS LESS OF A THREAT TO AUSTRALIA'S COAL INDUSTRY THAN INTERNATIONAL CLIMATE AMBITION - IEEFA
Australian coal exporters will survive this near-term political fight but there are longterm structural headwinds
The decision by Ch ...
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- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Australian Coal Association
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- MS Steel International - UAE
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
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