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Wednesday, 22 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The unfolding last week of a trilateral defence pact between the United States, Australia, the United Kingdom (AUKUS) envisages a wide range of collaboration, but at its core is an agreement to start consultations to help Australia acquire a fleet of nuclear-propelled submarines. Believe AUKUS is an interesting development in the context of the already intensified geopolitical tensions between Australia and China, which have already led to a shift in trading patterns, particularly as far as dry bulk trade is concerned.
In particular, China’s ban on Australian coal since Q42020 has triggered inefficiencies in coal trading, with wide price arbitrages developing between China and the rest of the world for both metallurgical coal used by the steel industry and thermal coal used in power generation. The supply tightness has been more severe on metallurgical coal, the price of which has surged to record high levels, with China scrambling for supplies simulateneously with the rest of the world, steel production of which continues to grow. Australia is the world’s largest met coal exporter (approx. 59.0% of global seaborne met coal exports) and 2nd thermal coal exporter (approx. 22.0% of global seaborne thermal coal exports). China’s coking coal imports from Australia have come down to zero YTD 2021 vs a more than 50% share in imports during the previous two years. Imports from Mongolia so far have failed to meet increased demand amid COVID related supply disruptions and China had to increase its met coal imports share from Russia and the West (particularly the US and Canada), the last traditionally being primariy origins of imports for Europe. On the other hand, Australia coking coal is absorbed by steel mills outside China, as global steel production excl. the latter is up 16.0+% y-o-y (YTD Jan-Jul) and Australia coking coal has turned out cheaper than US coking coal despite the overall price surge. This trade shift has increased ton-miles and dry bulk fleet inefficiencies supporting Atlantic freight rates higher for longer.
In the meantime, China’s policy pledge for emissions cuts seems to be further supporting ton-miles for dry bulk, despite the country’s crude steel production declining y-o-y over the past two months and iron ore price collapsing below $100/ton recently from $230/ton in mid-July. We believe that in the short term, the severe coking coal and coke shortage in China as a result of the above policies is forcing crude steel production to adjust downwards earlier, but is incentivizing purchases of cheaper iron ore particularly from the Atlantic.
Till recently, demand for cargoes of crucial raw materials like iron ore and coal have overall jumped this year, outpacing active fleet growth, particularly if congestion is factored in, as economies recover from the pandemic. As new market dynamics develop and shape a new post pandemic landscape, we want to believe that these will become new fundamentals that can continue to propel ultimately demand for seaborne transportation of dry bulk commodities in the long run.
By Christopher Whitty,
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 13 January 21
COAL TO BE BIGGEST CONTRIBUTOR TO INDIA'S $5 TRILLION ECONOMY: AMIT SHAH - BUSINESS STANDARD
The Centre on Monday awarded the letter of allocation to successful bidders of coal mines under the commercial auction held during October-November ...
Monday, 11 January 21
MUTED COAL RECOVERY IN 2021 - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Coal demand is expected to rebound in 2021
Medium-term outlook is less favourable although demand declines are expected to be subtle ...
Sunday, 10 January 21
KOREAN GENCOS INVITED BIDS FOR TOTAL 880,000 TONS OF COAL FOR MARCH 2021 LOADING
COALspot.com: Korea South-East Power Co., Ltd. (KOEN), on behalf of EWP, KOSPO, KOSEP and KOWEPO issued an international tender for total 880 ...
Friday, 08 January 21
INDIA COULD COMPETE AGAINST CHINA IN SOLAR MODULE PRODUCTION WITH THE RIGHT GOVERNMENT SUPPORT - IEEFA
The focus should be on helping manufacturers become globally competitive
Although one of the top 10 solar module producers in the world, India ...
Thursday, 07 January 21
FITCH FORECASTS DOUBLING IN ASIAN WIND, SOLAR CAPACITY BY 2029, TOPPING 1,500GW
Despite some near-term delays due to the Covid-19 pandemic, solar power and offshore wind will drive steep growth in non-hydro renewables in Asia, ...
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- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- The University of Queensland
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- PTC India Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
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