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Wednesday, 22 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The unfolding last week of a trilateral defence pact between the United States, Australia, the United Kingdom (AUKUS) envisages a wide range of collaboration, but at its core is an agreement to start consultations to help Australia acquire a fleet of nuclear-propelled submarines. Believe AUKUS is an interesting development in the context of the already intensified geopolitical tensions between Australia and China, which have already led to a shift in trading patterns, particularly as far as dry bulk trade is concerned.
In particular, China’s ban on Australian coal since Q42020 has triggered inefficiencies in coal trading, with wide price arbitrages developing between China and the rest of the world for both metallurgical coal used by the steel industry and thermal coal used in power generation. The supply tightness has been more severe on metallurgical coal, the price of which has surged to record high levels, with China scrambling for supplies simulateneously with the rest of the world, steel production of which continues to grow. Australia is the world’s largest met coal exporter (approx. 59.0% of global seaborne met coal exports) and 2nd thermal coal exporter (approx. 22.0% of global seaborne thermal coal exports). China’s coking coal imports from Australia have come down to zero YTD 2021 vs a more than 50% share in imports during the previous two years. Imports from Mongolia so far have failed to meet increased demand amid COVID related supply disruptions and China had to increase its met coal imports share from Russia and the West (particularly the US and Canada), the last traditionally being primariy origins of imports for Europe. On the other hand, Australia coking coal is absorbed by steel mills outside China, as global steel production excl. the latter is up 16.0+% y-o-y (YTD Jan-Jul) and Australia coking coal has turned out cheaper than US coking coal despite the overall price surge. This trade shift has increased ton-miles and dry bulk fleet inefficiencies supporting Atlantic freight rates higher for longer.
In the meantime, China’s policy pledge for emissions cuts seems to be further supporting ton-miles for dry bulk, despite the country’s crude steel production declining y-o-y over the past two months and iron ore price collapsing below $100/ton recently from $230/ton in mid-July. We believe that in the short term, the severe coking coal and coke shortage in China as a result of the above policies is forcing crude steel production to adjust downwards earlier, but is incentivizing purchases of cheaper iron ore particularly from the Atlantic.
Till recently, demand for cargoes of crucial raw materials like iron ore and coal have overall jumped this year, outpacing active fleet growth, particularly if congestion is factored in, as economies recover from the pandemic. As new market dynamics develop and shape a new post pandemic landscape, we want to believe that these will become new fundamentals that can continue to propel ultimately demand for seaborne transportation of dry bulk commodities in the long run.
By Christopher Whitty,
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 25 January 21
ULTRAMAX YET ANOTHER POSITIVE WEEK FOR THE SECTOR, WHICH SAW INCREASED DEMAND ACROSS ALL BASINS - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market rocked and rolled these past few days. But by weeks end little had changed on the Capesize 5TC as it settled down ...
Monday, 25 January 21
NEW LAW IN CALIFORNIA, USA, AFFECTING SHIPOWNERS' LIABILITY FOR OIL POLLUTION - BIMCO
Members are advised that amendments to the so-called Lempert-Keene-Seastrand Oil Spill Prevention and Response Act of 1990 in the State of Californ ...
Monday, 25 January 21
COAL INDIA SAYS GEARED UP TO MEET SURGE IN FUEL DEMAND FROM POWER SECTOR - PTI
State-owned Coal India Ltd on Saturday said that it is well geared to meet any surge in demand for coal from the power sector.
The s ...
Sunday, 24 January 21
GOVT ASSURES COAL INDIA OF 'FULL SUPPORT', STRESSES ON LEARNING 'NEW THINGS' - PTI
Coal Minister Pralhad Joshi assured Coal India of full government support, even as he said the PSU needs to learn “new things” for impr ...
Saturday, 23 January 21
GOVT PLANNING TO OPEN UP COAL MARKETING TO STREAMLINE PROCESS - THE INDIAN EXPRESS
The government is considering opening up coal marketing, Coal Secretary Anil Kumar Jain said on Thursday. Currently, production by Coal India is al ...
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- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
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