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Wednesday, 22 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The unfolding last week of a trilateral defence pact between the United States, Australia, the United Kingdom (AUKUS) envisages a wide range of collaboration, but at its core is an agreement to start consultations to help Australia acquire a fleet of nuclear-propelled submarines. Believe AUKUS is an interesting development in the context of the already intensified geopolitical tensions between Australia and China, which have already led to a shift in trading patterns, particularly as far as dry bulk trade is concerned.
In particular, China’s ban on Australian coal since Q42020 has triggered inefficiencies in coal trading, with wide price arbitrages developing between China and the rest of the world for both metallurgical coal used by the steel industry and thermal coal used in power generation. The supply tightness has been more severe on metallurgical coal, the price of which has surged to record high levels, with China scrambling for supplies simulateneously with the rest of the world, steel production of which continues to grow. Australia is the world’s largest met coal exporter (approx. 59.0% of global seaborne met coal exports) and 2nd thermal coal exporter (approx. 22.0% of global seaborne thermal coal exports). China’s coking coal imports from Australia have come down to zero YTD 2021 vs a more than 50% share in imports during the previous two years. Imports from Mongolia so far have failed to meet increased demand amid COVID related supply disruptions and China had to increase its met coal imports share from Russia and the West (particularly the US and Canada), the last traditionally being primariy origins of imports for Europe. On the other hand, Australia coking coal is absorbed by steel mills outside China, as global steel production excl. the latter is up 16.0+% y-o-y (YTD Jan-Jul) and Australia coking coal has turned out cheaper than US coking coal despite the overall price surge. This trade shift has increased ton-miles and dry bulk fleet inefficiencies supporting Atlantic freight rates higher for longer.
In the meantime, China’s policy pledge for emissions cuts seems to be further supporting ton-miles for dry bulk, despite the country’s crude steel production declining y-o-y over the past two months and iron ore price collapsing below $100/ton recently from $230/ton in mid-July. We believe that in the short term, the severe coking coal and coke shortage in China as a result of the above policies is forcing crude steel production to adjust downwards earlier, but is incentivizing purchases of cheaper iron ore particularly from the Atlantic.
Till recently, demand for cargoes of crucial raw materials like iron ore and coal have overall jumped this year, outpacing active fleet growth, particularly if congestion is factored in, as economies recover from the pandemic. As new market dynamics develop and shape a new post pandemic landscape, we want to believe that these will become new fundamentals that can continue to propel ultimately demand for seaborne transportation of dry bulk commodities in the long run.
By Christopher Whitty,
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 10 February 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
We have just entered February, Chinese New Year holidays are about to start and the SnP market for bulkers is so hot as every seller would dream of ...
Tuesday, 09 February 21
SWITCHING COAL PLANTS TO PLN'S BIOMASS COFIRING PLAN IS NO MAGIC BULLET - IEEFA
Implementation risks for Indonesia PLN's switch from coal to biomass cofiring
PLN’s biomass cofiring plan will require not ...
Friday, 05 February 21
THE INDONESIA COAL PRICE REFERENCE FOR FEBRUARY 2021 SETTLES AT US$ 87.79 PER TON FOB VESSEL
COALspot.com: The Indonesia coal price reference for February 2021 settles at US$ 87.79 per ton FOB vessel. The February reference price is the hig ...
Thursday, 04 February 21
WHY BANGLADESH SHOULDN’T COUNT ON A FOSSIL FUEL FUTURE - IEEFA
Around US$50 billion of LNG projects in Asia at risk of cancellation
Two astonishing figures have circulated in the Asian energy sector in the ...
Wednesday, 03 February 21
INDONESIA TO EXPORT 395 MILLION TONS OF COAL IN 2021 - ESDM
Data from the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources shows that, Indonesia is planning to produce 550 million Ton of coal in 2021 and as of t ...
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- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- PTC India Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Planning Commission, India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
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