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Wednesday, 22 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The unfolding last week of a trilateral defence pact between the United States, Australia, the United Kingdom (AUKUS) envisages a wide range of collaboration, but at its core is an agreement to start consultations to help Australia acquire a fleet of nuclear-propelled submarines. Believe AUKUS is an interesting development in the context of the already intensified geopolitical tensions between Australia and China, which have already led to a shift in trading patterns, particularly as far as dry bulk trade is concerned.
In particular, China’s ban on Australian coal since Q42020 has triggered inefficiencies in coal trading, with wide price arbitrages developing between China and the rest of the world for both metallurgical coal used by the steel industry and thermal coal used in power generation. The supply tightness has been more severe on metallurgical coal, the price of which has surged to record high levels, with China scrambling for supplies simulateneously with the rest of the world, steel production of which continues to grow. Australia is the world’s largest met coal exporter (approx. 59.0% of global seaborne met coal exports) and 2nd thermal coal exporter (approx. 22.0% of global seaborne thermal coal exports). China’s coking coal imports from Australia have come down to zero YTD 2021 vs a more than 50% share in imports during the previous two years. Imports from Mongolia so far have failed to meet increased demand amid COVID related supply disruptions and China had to increase its met coal imports share from Russia and the West (particularly the US and Canada), the last traditionally being primariy origins of imports for Europe. On the other hand, Australia coking coal is absorbed by steel mills outside China, as global steel production excl. the latter is up 16.0+% y-o-y (YTD Jan-Jul) and Australia coking coal has turned out cheaper than US coking coal despite the overall price surge. This trade shift has increased ton-miles and dry bulk fleet inefficiencies supporting Atlantic freight rates higher for longer.
In the meantime, China’s policy pledge for emissions cuts seems to be further supporting ton-miles for dry bulk, despite the country’s crude steel production declining y-o-y over the past two months and iron ore price collapsing below $100/ton recently from $230/ton in mid-July. We believe that in the short term, the severe coking coal and coke shortage in China as a result of the above policies is forcing crude steel production to adjust downwards earlier, but is incentivizing purchases of cheaper iron ore particularly from the Atlantic.
Till recently, demand for cargoes of crucial raw materials like iron ore and coal have overall jumped this year, outpacing active fleet growth, particularly if congestion is factored in, as economies recover from the pandemic. As new market dynamics develop and shape a new post pandemic landscape, we want to believe that these will become new fundamentals that can continue to propel ultimately demand for seaborne transportation of dry bulk commodities in the long run.
By Christopher Whitty,
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 25 March 21
'OMNIBUS LAW' REGULATION ON INDONESIA’S ENERGY AND MINING SECTORS TO BOOST COAL PROCESSING BUT ALSO RAISES QUESTIONS - ABNR
February 2021 saw the issuance of a raft of new government regulations to give effect to the reformist Job Creation Law (colloquially known as the ...
Thursday, 25 March 21
PROPOSED SWITCH FROM COAL TO LNG THREATENS RENEWABLE ENERGY DEVELOPMENT IN ASIA - IEEFA
Renewables offer an ever cheaper, financially sustainable and energy secure alternative, better able to support developing nations
A ...
Thursday, 25 March 21
MAJOR INVESTMENT ADVISORS BLACKROCK AND MEKETA PROVIDE A FIDUCIARY PATH THROUGH THE ENERGY TRANSITION - IEEFA
BlackRock and Meketa say divestment from fossil fuels improves, not weakens, investment returns
Two major financial management firms ...
Thursday, 25 March 21
EUROPE PASSES MILESTONE WITH HALF OF COAL PLANTS CLOSED OR SET TO RETIRE BY 2030 - EURACTIV
Half of Europe’s 324 coal-fueled power plants have either closed or announced a retirement date before 2030, it emerged on Monday (22 March) ...
Wednesday, 24 March 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Since the start of the pandemic, the shipping industry has efficiently responded to ensure the continuity of operations and hence the security of s ...
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- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- PTC India Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
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