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Wednesday, 22 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The unfolding last week of a trilateral defence pact between the United States, Australia, the United Kingdom (AUKUS) envisages a wide range of collaboration, but at its core is an agreement to start consultations to help Australia acquire a fleet of nuclear-propelled submarines. Believe AUKUS is an interesting development in the context of the already intensified geopolitical tensions between Australia and China, which have already led to a shift in trading patterns, particularly as far as dry bulk trade is concerned.
In particular, China’s ban on Australian coal since Q42020 has triggered inefficiencies in coal trading, with wide price arbitrages developing between China and the rest of the world for both metallurgical coal used by the steel industry and thermal coal used in power generation. The supply tightness has been more severe on metallurgical coal, the price of which has surged to record high levels, with China scrambling for supplies simulateneously with the rest of the world, steel production of which continues to grow. Australia is the world’s largest met coal exporter (approx. 59.0% of global seaborne met coal exports) and 2nd thermal coal exporter (approx. 22.0% of global seaborne thermal coal exports). China’s coking coal imports from Australia have come down to zero YTD 2021 vs a more than 50% share in imports during the previous two years. Imports from Mongolia so far have failed to meet increased demand amid COVID related supply disruptions and China had to increase its met coal imports share from Russia and the West (particularly the US and Canada), the last traditionally being primariy origins of imports for Europe. On the other hand, Australia coking coal is absorbed by steel mills outside China, as global steel production excl. the latter is up 16.0+% y-o-y (YTD Jan-Jul) and Australia coking coal has turned out cheaper than US coking coal despite the overall price surge. This trade shift has increased ton-miles and dry bulk fleet inefficiencies supporting Atlantic freight rates higher for longer.
In the meantime, China’s policy pledge for emissions cuts seems to be further supporting ton-miles for dry bulk, despite the country’s crude steel production declining y-o-y over the past two months and iron ore price collapsing below $100/ton recently from $230/ton in mid-July. We believe that in the short term, the severe coking coal and coke shortage in China as a result of the above policies is forcing crude steel production to adjust downwards earlier, but is incentivizing purchases of cheaper iron ore particularly from the Atlantic.
Till recently, demand for cargoes of crucial raw materials like iron ore and coal have overall jumped this year, outpacing active fleet growth, particularly if congestion is factored in, as economies recover from the pandemic. As new market dynamics develop and shape a new post pandemic landscape, we want to believe that these will become new fundamentals that can continue to propel ultimately demand for seaborne transportation of dry bulk commodities in the long run.
By Christopher Whitty,
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 12 May 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Tanker S&P is finally back!
For an extended period, Dry bulk & Wet market rates have been diverging, with the SnP deals on each sect ...
Monday, 10 May 21
PAKISTAN: COAL GASIFICATION AND LIQUEFACTION HARMFUL TO ECONOMY - IEEFA
There is no second life for coal
Pakistan’s intention to use coal for power production through gasification and liquefaction technologie ...
Sunday, 09 May 21
HERE'S WHY INVESTORS ARE POURING MONEY INTO COAL, DESPITE ITS BLEAK FUTURE - FORBES
Coal stocks have surged this year – along with the wider energy sector – but experts warn these are likely short-term gains for an indu ...
Sunday, 09 May 21
MAYBANK TO STOP COAL FINANCING - BERNAMA
Malayan Banking Bhd (Maybank) will stop financing new coal activities as part of its sustainable agenda.
Currently, coal financing m ...
Saturday, 08 May 21
LNG-TO-POWER INVESTORS IN THE PHILIPPINES RISK EXPOSURE TO $14 BILLION IN STRANDED ASSETS - IEEFA
High regulatory and financial uncertainty in the Philippines market
The race to develop liquified natural gas (LNG) facilities in th ...
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- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
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