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Wednesday, 22 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The unfolding last week of a trilateral defence pact between the United States, Australia, the United Kingdom (AUKUS) envisages a wide range of collaboration, but at its core is an agreement to start consultations to help Australia acquire a fleet of nuclear-propelled submarines. Believe AUKUS is an interesting development in the context of the already intensified geopolitical tensions between Australia and China, which have already led to a shift in trading patterns, particularly as far as dry bulk trade is concerned.
In particular, China’s ban on Australian coal since Q42020 has triggered inefficiencies in coal trading, with wide price arbitrages developing between China and the rest of the world for both metallurgical coal used by the steel industry and thermal coal used in power generation. The supply tightness has been more severe on metallurgical coal, the price of which has surged to record high levels, with China scrambling for supplies simulateneously with the rest of the world, steel production of which continues to grow. Australia is the world’s largest met coal exporter (approx. 59.0% of global seaborne met coal exports) and 2nd thermal coal exporter (approx. 22.0% of global seaborne thermal coal exports). China’s coking coal imports from Australia have come down to zero YTD 2021 vs a more than 50% share in imports during the previous two years. Imports from Mongolia so far have failed to meet increased demand amid COVID related supply disruptions and China had to increase its met coal imports share from Russia and the West (particularly the US and Canada), the last traditionally being primariy origins of imports for Europe. On the other hand, Australia coking coal is absorbed by steel mills outside China, as global steel production excl. the latter is up 16.0+% y-o-y (YTD Jan-Jul) and Australia coking coal has turned out cheaper than US coking coal despite the overall price surge. This trade shift has increased ton-miles and dry bulk fleet inefficiencies supporting Atlantic freight rates higher for longer.
In the meantime, China’s policy pledge for emissions cuts seems to be further supporting ton-miles for dry bulk, despite the country’s crude steel production declining y-o-y over the past two months and iron ore price collapsing below $100/ton recently from $230/ton in mid-July. We believe that in the short term, the severe coking coal and coke shortage in China as a result of the above policies is forcing crude steel production to adjust downwards earlier, but is incentivizing purchases of cheaper iron ore particularly from the Atlantic.
Till recently, demand for cargoes of crucial raw materials like iron ore and coal have overall jumped this year, outpacing active fleet growth, particularly if congestion is factored in, as economies recover from the pandemic. As new market dynamics develop and shape a new post pandemic landscape, we want to believe that these will become new fundamentals that can continue to propel ultimately demand for seaborne transportation of dry bulk commodities in the long run.
By Christopher Whitty,
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 27 May 21
CHINA POWER DEMAND EXCEEDS PRE-COVID-19 LEVELS; THERMAL OUTPUT STRONG - FITCH RATINGS
Rising Consumption: Total power consumption rose by 21.2% yoy to 1,921.9GWh in 1Q21 due to the fast recovery of China’s economy, after a drop ...
Thursday, 27 May 21
CHINA'S POWER DEMAND EXCEEDS PRE-PANDEMIC LEVELS; RENEWABLES TO DRIVE DEVELOPMENT - FITCH RATINGS
China's power consumption exceeded the pre-Covid-19 levels in 1Q21 due to the country's fast economic recovery, with strong output from the ...
Wednesday, 26 May 21
THE INDONESIA COAL PRICE REFERENCE FOR MAY 2021 SETTLES AT US$ 89.74 PER TON
COALspot.com: The Indonesia coal price reference for May 2021 settles at US$ 89.74 per ton FOB vessel.
The Indonesia coal pric ...
Wednesday, 26 May 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Last year crude tankers’ newbuilding contracting activity was devastated by the economic effects of the Covid-19 pandemic and the cloud of un ...
Wednesday, 26 May 21
NEW POWER AND ENERGY MASTER PLAN MUST BE DESIGNED IN BANGLADESH'S BEST INTERESTS, NOT JAPAN'S - IEEFA
JICA must deliver a low or zero emissions plan as promised, not fund Matarbari 2 coal plant
Clear understandings from the Bangladesh ...
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- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Planning Commission, India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
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