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Wednesday, 22 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The unfolding last week of a trilateral defence pact between the United States, Australia, the United Kingdom (AUKUS) envisages a wide range of collaboration, but at its core is an agreement to start consultations to help Australia acquire a fleet of nuclear-propelled submarines. Believe AUKUS is an interesting development in the context of the already intensified geopolitical tensions between Australia and China, which have already led to a shift in trading patterns, particularly as far as dry bulk trade is concerned.
In particular, China’s ban on Australian coal since Q42020 has triggered inefficiencies in coal trading, with wide price arbitrages developing between China and the rest of the world for both metallurgical coal used by the steel industry and thermal coal used in power generation. The supply tightness has been more severe on metallurgical coal, the price of which has surged to record high levels, with China scrambling for supplies simulateneously with the rest of the world, steel production of which continues to grow. Australia is the world’s largest met coal exporter (approx. 59.0% of global seaborne met coal exports) and 2nd thermal coal exporter (approx. 22.0% of global seaborne thermal coal exports). China’s coking coal imports from Australia have come down to zero YTD 2021 vs a more than 50% share in imports during the previous two years. Imports from Mongolia so far have failed to meet increased demand amid COVID related supply disruptions and China had to increase its met coal imports share from Russia and the West (particularly the US and Canada), the last traditionally being primariy origins of imports for Europe. On the other hand, Australia coking coal is absorbed by steel mills outside China, as global steel production excl. the latter is up 16.0+% y-o-y (YTD Jan-Jul) and Australia coking coal has turned out cheaper than US coking coal despite the overall price surge. This trade shift has increased ton-miles and dry bulk fleet inefficiencies supporting Atlantic freight rates higher for longer.
In the meantime, China’s policy pledge for emissions cuts seems to be further supporting ton-miles for dry bulk, despite the country’s crude steel production declining y-o-y over the past two months and iron ore price collapsing below $100/ton recently from $230/ton in mid-July. We believe that in the short term, the severe coking coal and coke shortage in China as a result of the above policies is forcing crude steel production to adjust downwards earlier, but is incentivizing purchases of cheaper iron ore particularly from the Atlantic.
Till recently, demand for cargoes of crucial raw materials like iron ore and coal have overall jumped this year, outpacing active fleet growth, particularly if congestion is factored in, as economies recover from the pandemic. As new market dynamics develop and shape a new post pandemic landscape, we want to believe that these will become new fundamentals that can continue to propel ultimately demand for seaborne transportation of dry bulk commodities in the long run.
By Christopher Whitty,
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 04 June 21
NEW COAL-FIRED POWER PLANTS IN INDIA WILL BE ECONOMICALLY UNVIABLE - IEEFA
Coal capacity additions face major stranded asset risk
Much of India’s 33 gigawatts (GW) of coal-fired power capacity currently under co ...
Thursday, 03 June 21
JUNE HBA IS HITTING ABOVE $100 AND SETTLED AT ITS HIGHEST SINCE OCTOBER 2020
COALspot.com: The Indonesia coal price reference for June 2021 settles at US$ 100.33 per ton FOB vessel.
The Indonesia coal pr ...
Wednesday, 02 June 21
INDONESIA RV WAS DOWN TO LOW/MID $20,000S DAY FOR PANAMAX/KAMSARMAX WITH DELIVERY S CHINA - BANCHERO COSTA
Panamax
A softening week in the Pacific basin with rates under a downward pressure mainly caused by the oversupply of tonnage in the area, said ...
Wednesday, 02 June 21
EUROPEAN UNION'S IRON ORE IMPORTS - BANCHERO COSTA
The European Union (27) is currently the fourth largest importer of iron ore in the world, after China, Japan, and South Korea.
Euro ...
Tuesday, 01 June 21
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX DOWN 0.02 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 160.06 points Monday, down 0.02 percent week on week.
The index, released by Chi ...
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- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- The University of Queensland
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Australian Coal Association
- PTC India Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- VISA Power Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
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