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Wednesday, 22 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The unfolding last week of a trilateral defence pact between the United States, Australia, the United Kingdom (AUKUS) envisages a wide range of collaboration, but at its core is an agreement to start consultations to help Australia acquire a fleet of nuclear-propelled submarines. Believe AUKUS is an interesting development in the context of the already intensified geopolitical tensions between Australia and China, which have already led to a shift in trading patterns, particularly as far as dry bulk trade is concerned.
In particular, China’s ban on Australian coal since Q42020 has triggered inefficiencies in coal trading, with wide price arbitrages developing between China and the rest of the world for both metallurgical coal used by the steel industry and thermal coal used in power generation. The supply tightness has been more severe on metallurgical coal, the price of which has surged to record high levels, with China scrambling for supplies simulateneously with the rest of the world, steel production of which continues to grow. Australia is the world’s largest met coal exporter (approx. 59.0% of global seaborne met coal exports) and 2nd thermal coal exporter (approx. 22.0% of global seaborne thermal coal exports). China’s coking coal imports from Australia have come down to zero YTD 2021 vs a more than 50% share in imports during the previous two years. Imports from Mongolia so far have failed to meet increased demand amid COVID related supply disruptions and China had to increase its met coal imports share from Russia and the West (particularly the US and Canada), the last traditionally being primariy origins of imports for Europe. On the other hand, Australia coking coal is absorbed by steel mills outside China, as global steel production excl. the latter is up 16.0+% y-o-y (YTD Jan-Jul) and Australia coking coal has turned out cheaper than US coking coal despite the overall price surge. This trade shift has increased ton-miles and dry bulk fleet inefficiencies supporting Atlantic freight rates higher for longer.
In the meantime, China’s policy pledge for emissions cuts seems to be further supporting ton-miles for dry bulk, despite the country’s crude steel production declining y-o-y over the past two months and iron ore price collapsing below $100/ton recently from $230/ton in mid-July. We believe that in the short term, the severe coking coal and coke shortage in China as a result of the above policies is forcing crude steel production to adjust downwards earlier, but is incentivizing purchases of cheaper iron ore particularly from the Atlantic.
Till recently, demand for cargoes of crucial raw materials like iron ore and coal have overall jumped this year, outpacing active fleet growth, particularly if congestion is factored in, as economies recover from the pandemic. As new market dynamics develop and shape a new post pandemic landscape, we want to believe that these will become new fundamentals that can continue to propel ultimately demand for seaborne transportation of dry bulk commodities in the long run.
By Christopher Whitty,
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 14 June 21
'WISHFUL THINKING': WHY CHINA NEEDS AUSTRALIAN IRON ORE FOR 'MANY YEARS' TO COME - YAHOO FINANCE AU
A “wintry period”.
That’s what’s expected to happen to Australia’s economy “when” China st ...
Sunday, 13 June 21
COAL AND LNG’S SURGE IN ASIA PLAYS INTO RENEWABLE ENERGY HANDS - REUTERS
Liquefied natural gas (LNG) and thermal coal prices in Asia have been roaring ahead in recent months amid strong demand, but while welcome news for ...
Friday, 11 June 21
5 REASONS GLOBAL SHIPPING COSTS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE - ING
No short-term relief
Shipping costs have been growing strongly since the autumn of 2020, but the first months of this year have seen a new surg ...
Friday, 11 June 21
ASIA COAL PRICES SURGE, BUT CHINA-AUSTRALIA DISPUTE MEANS RALLY IS UNEVEN - REUTERS
Thermal coal prices across Asia have surged to multi-year highs amid strong demand and some supply constraints, but some types of the fuel have don ...
Thursday, 10 June 21
INDONESIA COAL EARNINGS RECOVERY TO SLOW AFTER STRONG 1Q - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings expects the recovery in operating and financial performance of Indonesian coal miners and coal contractors to slow during rest of 202 ...
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- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Australian Coal Association
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- The University of Queensland
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
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